Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving the program largely dormant with no verified uranium enrichment underway. Roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium remains inaccessible under rubble or sealed tunnels at sites including Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow, while the IAEA has been denied access since mid-2025 and cannot confirm stockpile locations or status. The IAEA board’s September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for noncompliance, alongside ongoing construction at the Pickaxe Mountain complex, underscores persistent gaps but no active weaponization steps. Trader consensus on no test before 2027 reflects these setbacks, sustained international pressure, and Iran’s public reaffirmation against nuclear weapons development. Late shifts could occur if Tehran extracts and processes the existing highly enriched uranium stock or accelerates work at hardened sites amid renewed escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
5% Chance
$258,539 Vol.
$258,539 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
5% Chance
$258,539 Vol.
$258,539 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving the program largely dormant with no verified uranium enrichment underway. Roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium remains inaccessible under rubble or sealed tunnels at sites including Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow, while the IAEA has been denied access since mid-2025 and cannot confirm stockpile locations or status. The IAEA board’s September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for noncompliance, alongside ongoing construction at the Pickaxe Mountain complex, underscores persistent gaps but no active weaponization steps. Trader consensus on no test before 2027 reflects these setbacks, sustained international pressure, and Iran’s public reaffirmation against nuclear weapons development. Late shifts could occur if Tehran extracts and processes the existing highly enriched uranium stock or accelerates work at hardened sites amid renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$258,539Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving the program largely dormant with no verified uranium enrichment underway. Roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium remains inaccessible under rubble or sealed tunnels at sites including Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow, while the IAEA has been denied access since mid-2025 and cannot confirm stockpile locations or status. The IAEA board’s September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for noncompliance, alongside ongoing construction at the Pickaxe Mountain complex, underscores persistent gaps but no active weaponization steps. Trader consensus on no test before 2027 reflects these setbacks, sustained international pressure, and Iran’s public reaffirmation against nuclear weapons development. Late shifts could occur if Tehran extracts and processes the existing highly enriched uranium stock or accelerates work at hardened sites amid renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$258,539Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving the program largely dormant with no verified uranium enrichment underway. Roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium remains inaccessible under rubble or sealed tunnels at sites including Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow, while the IAEA has been denied access since mid-2025 and cannot confirm stockpile locations or status. The IAEA board’s September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for noncompliance, alongside ongoing construction at the Pickaxe Mountain complex, underscores persistent gaps but no active weaponization steps. Trader consensus on no test before 2027 reflects these setbacks, sustained international pressure, and Iran’s public reaffirmation against nuclear weapons development. Late shifts could occur if Tehran extracts and processes the existing highly enriched uranium stock or accelerates work at hardened sites amid renewed escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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