Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election remains on schedule after the 25th Knesset dissolved in July and party lists were finalized in September, with no procedural barriers or external interventions halting the vote. US Democratic criticism of Israeli policy has intensified through primaries and aid debates, yet these shifts have produced no legislative or executive actions capable of blocking Israel’s sovereign electoral process. Traders assign 96.8 percent probability to “No” because the timeline, candidate filings, and campaign activity continue uninterrupted, consistent with Israel’s independent constitutional framework. The only realistic variables that could still alter the outcome are unforeseen domestic court rulings on candidate disqualifications or sudden security developments forcing postponement under Israeli law.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
3% Chance
NEU
NEU
27. Okt. 2026
Ja
3% Chance
NEU
NEU
27. Okt. 2026
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election remains on schedule after the 25th Knesset dissolved in July and party lists were finalized in September, with no procedural barriers or external interventions halting the vote. US Democratic criticism of Israeli policy has intensified through primaries and aid debates, yet these shifts have produced no legislative or executive actions capable of blocking Israel’s sovereign electoral process. Traders assign 96.8 percent probability to “No” because the timeline, candidate filings, and campaign activity continue uninterrupted, consistent with Israel’s independent constitutional framework. The only realistic variables that could still alter the outcome are unforeseen domestic court rulings on candidate disqualifications or sudden security developments forcing postponement under Israeli law.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 23, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$85Enddatum
27. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 23, 2026, 4:09 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070be91...Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election remains on schedule after the 25th Knesset dissolved in July and party lists were finalized in September, with no procedural barriers or external interventions halting the vote. US Democratic criticism of Israeli policy has intensified through primaries and aid debates, yet these shifts have produced no legislative or executive actions capable of blocking Israel’s sovereign electoral process. Traders assign 96.8 percent probability to “No” because the timeline, candidate filings, and campaign activity continue uninterrupted, consistent with Israel’s independent constitutional framework. The only realistic variables that could still alter the outcome are unforeseen domestic court rulings on candidate disqualifications or sudden security developments forcing postponement under Israeli law.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
27. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 23, 2026, 4:09 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070be91...Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election remains on schedule after the 25th Knesset dissolved in July and party lists were finalized in September, with no procedural barriers or external interventions halting the vote. US Democratic criticism of Israeli policy has intensified through primaries and aid debates, yet these shifts have produced no legislative or executive actions capable of blocking Israel’s sovereign electoral process. Traders assign 96.8 percent probability to “No” because the timeline, candidate filings, and campaign activity continue uninterrupted, consistent with Israel’s independent constitutional framework. The only realistic variables that could still alter the outcome are unforeseen domestic court rulings on candidate disqualifications or sudden security developments forcing postponement under Israeli law.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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