Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan formed in February 2026, have concentrated on coordinated regime-change efforts, general strikes, and limited insurgency during the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict to secure self-determination or federal autonomy inside existing borders rather than outright secession. These groups lack unified leadership, sufficient military capacity for territorial control, or broad international backing for a new state, while Iranian security forces continue targeted operations to maintain central authority. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no declaration reflects these structural barriers through the June 2026 resolution window. A sudden shift could occur only if Kurdish forces seized and held significant territory amid broader state collapse or secured explicit external guarantees, neither of which has materialized.