**In the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice riding for Quebec’s October 5, 2026, National Assembly election, trader prices reflect a tight three-way contest driven by shifting provincial trends and local dynamics.** Recent riding projections from models such as 338Canada and Vote-Scope show the CAQ’s Guy Veillette and the PQ’s Élodie Murphy-Gauthier running neck-and-neck (roughly 30–32% each), with the PCQ’s Charles Paquin also competitive around 18–19%, while the QLP’s Laurent Bélisle trails further back. The seat, held by the CAQ since 2022 with a 35-point margin, has narrowed sharply as province-wide polls indicate the PQ leading overall but the CAQ gaining ground in the latest surveys, particularly outside major urban centers. This riding’s mixed regional profile amplifies volatility, with local candidate profiles, party momentum in the Mauricie area, and broader issues like sovereignty and economic concerns keeping probabilities closely matched. Further polling shifts, candidate visibility before the September 17 nomination deadline, or late-campaign events could widen gaps among the frontrunners ahead of election day.