Recent forecasts from major models including ECMWF and GFS point to clear skies and light southerly winds over Madrid on August 22, supporting overnight radiative cooling that should drive the minimum temperature into the 18–20°C range typical for late-summer continental conditions. These conditions favor the market’s tight clustering around 18°C and 19°C, as modest differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical August lows average near 19°C, and current surface observations show dew points in the mid-teens, limiting further cooling while the absence of significant precipitation or strong winds keeps variability low ahead of final model updates overnight.