Recent forecast uncertainty from models including those used by the National Weather Service equivalents and ECMWF centers centers on overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and thundery showers expected in Milan on August 21. A possible weak frontal boundary or increased humidity could limit minimum temperatures to the mid-teens Celsius, while clearer intervals after any evening precipitation might allow drops toward 13°C or below. Historical August lows average near 17°C, with recent heatwave conditions giving way to these cooler, unsettled patterns. Traders assign roughly equal weight across 13–16°C outcomes because small differences in timing of showers or wind speeds can shift the recorded minimum by 2–3°C, with official station data from Milan Linate or Malpensa determining resolution.