Recent forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and global models indicate Moscow's nighttime minimum on August 28 will likely fall between 9–12 °C under partly cloudy skies, light northwesterly winds, and stable high pressure around 756–767 mmHg. These conditions favor modest radiative cooling after daytime highs near 18–20 °C, aligning with the historical average low of 11.3 °C but allowing for downward shifts if clearer breaks develop or if northerly advection strengthens. Ensemble spread in short-range guidance creates roughly equal market-implied odds near 46 % across the 6–11 °C thresholds, reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight minimum rather than any single dominant driver. Warmer outcomes above 15 °C carry sharply lower probability as current steering patterns suppress significant warming. Updated model runs and official overnight observations in the next 48 hours will be the key resolution catalysts.