Trader consensus favors "No" at 80% implied probability for a megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater per USGS moment magnitude scale) by June 30, 2026, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of large earthquakes and historical global rates of roughly one M8+ event annually. USGS data shows no qualifying events since late 2025, with recent activity—including a M7.4 subduction zone quake off Miyako, Japan on April 20, and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—falling short despite Pacific Ring of Fire upticks; final magnitudes stayed below threshold after revisions. No foreshocks, slow-slip events, or seismic gaps signal imminent rupture on major faults like Cascadia or Nankai. Continuous USGS monitoring will provide updates, but short-term forecasts remain impossible per agency guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMegabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Megabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Ja
$56,966 Vol.
$56,966 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$56,966 Vol.
$56,966 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 80% implied probability for a megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater per USGS moment magnitude scale) by June 30, 2026, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of large earthquakes and historical global rates of roughly one M8+ event annually. USGS data shows no qualifying events since late 2025, with recent activity—including a M7.4 subduction zone quake off Miyako, Japan on April 20, and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—falling short despite Pacific Ring of Fire upticks; final magnitudes stayed below threshold after revisions. No foreshocks, slow-slip events, or seismic gaps signal imminent rupture on major faults like Cascadia or Nankai. Continuous USGS monitoring will provide updates, but short-term forecasts remain impossible per agency guidance.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$56,966Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 80% implied probability for a megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater per USGS moment magnitude scale) by June 30, 2026, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of large earthquakes and historical global rates of roughly one M8+ event annually. USGS data shows no qualifying events since late 2025, with recent activity—including a M7.4 subduction zone quake off Miyako, Japan on April 20, and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—falling short despite Pacific Ring of Fire upticks; final magnitudes stayed below threshold after revisions. No foreshocks, slow-slip events, or seismic gaps signal imminent rupture on major faults like Cascadia or Nankai. Continuous USGS monitoring will provide updates, but short-term forecasts remain impossible per agency guidance.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$56,966Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 80% implied probability for a megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater per USGS moment magnitude scale) by June 30, 2026, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of large earthquakes and historical global rates of roughly one M8+ event annually. USGS data shows no qualifying events since late 2025, with recent activity—including a M7.4 subduction zone quake off Miyako, Japan on April 20, and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—falling short despite Pacific Ring of Fire upticks; final magnitudes stayed below threshold after revisions. No foreshocks, slow-slip events, or seismic gaps signal imminent rupture on major faults like Cascadia or Nankai. Continuous USGS monitoring will provide updates, but short-term forecasts remain impossible per agency guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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