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icon for Nächstes Muse Spark-Modell (1.4+) veröffentlicht am...?
Technik·AI

Nächstes Muse Spark-Modell (1.4+) veröffentlicht am...?

icon for Nächstes Muse Spark-Modell (1.4+) veröffentlicht am...?
Technik·AI

Nächstes Muse Spark-Modell (1.4+) veröffentlicht am...?

22. Oktober 29%

3. Oktober 26%

25. Oktober 25%

28. Oktober 25%

Polymarket
NEU

22. Oktober 29%

3. Oktober 26%

25. Oktober 25%

28. Oktober 25%

Polymarket
NEU

Am oder vor dem 1. Oktober

$0 Vol.

16%

2. Oktober

$0 Vol.

13%

3. Oktober

$0 Vol.

26%

4. Oktober

$0 Vol.

13%

5. Oktober

$0 Vol.

25%

6. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

7. Oktober

$0 Vol.

25%

8. Oktober

$0 Vol.

26%

9. Oktober

$5 Vol.

9%

10. Oktober

$0 Vol.

24%

11. Oktober

$0 Vol.

25%

12. Oktober

$0 Vol.

25%

13. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

14. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

15. Oktober

$0 Vol.

15%

16. Oktober

$0 Vol.

8%

17. Oktober

$0 Vol.

8%

18. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

19. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

20. Oktober

$0 Vol.

13%

21. Oktober

$0 Vol.

13%

22. Oktober

$0 Vol.

29%

23. Oktober

$0 Vol.

13%

24. Oktober

$0 Vol.

18%

25. Oktober

$0 Vol.

25%

26. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

27. Oktober

$0 Vol.

12%

28. Oktober

$0 Vol.

25%

29. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

30. Oktober

$0 Vol.

18%

31. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 31. Oktober

$0 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s pattern of monthly Muse Spark iterations—1.1 in July, 1.2 in early August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the tight clustering of October probabilities around early-to-mid-month dates. The 1.3 update delivered notable gains in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding efficiency via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, with Zuckerberg highlighting frontier price-performance and teasing further open-weights releases. Traders weigh this cadence against the absence of any confirmed 1.4 timeline or internal benchmarks, while competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models and ongoing Superintelligence Labs scaling create uncertainty around exact timing. Key near-term catalysts include developer conferences, API pricing changes, or executive statements that could shift release windows before the October 31 cutoff.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5
Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s pattern of monthly Muse Spark iterations—1.1 in July, 1.2 in early August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the tight clustering of October probabilities around early-to-mid-month dates. The 1.3 update delivered notable gains in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding efficiency via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, with Zuckerberg highlighting frontier price-performance and teasing further open-weights releases. Traders weigh this cadence against the absence of any confirmed 1.4 timeline or internal benchmarks, while competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models and ongoing Superintelligence Labs scaling create uncertainty around exact timing. Key near-term catalysts include developer conferences, API pricing changes, or executive statements that could shift release windows before the October 31 cutoff.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5
Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird das nächste Muse Spark (1.4+) bis zum 31. Oktober 2026 veröffentlicht?

Wird das nächste Muse Spark (1.4+) bis zum 31. Oktober 2026 veröffentlicht?

73%
Ja
icon for Wird die nächste Muse-Modellfamilie Muse Blaze heißen?

Wird die nächste Muse-Modellfamilie Muse Blaze heißen?

27%
Ja
icon for Wird Meta's Watermelon bis zum 30. November 2026 veröffentlicht?

Wird Meta's Watermelon bis zum 30. November 2026 veröffentlicht?

89%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Nächstes Muse Spark-Modell (1.4+) veröffentlicht am...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 32 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „22. Oktober" mit 28%, gefolgt von „3. Oktober" mit 26%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 28¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Nächstes Muse Spark-Modell (1.4+) veröffentlicht am...?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 22, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Nächstes Muse Spark-Modell (1.4+) veröffentlicht am...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 32 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Nächstes Muse Spark-Modell (1.4+) veröffentlicht am...?" ist „22. Oktober" mit 28%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „3. Oktober" mit 26%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Nächstes Muse Spark-Modell (1.4+) veröffentlicht am...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.