Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the U.S.-Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, have produced no announced ceasefires, high-level leader summits, or breakthroughs during September. UN General Assembly sessions and related bilateral meetings yielded diplomatic statements but no qualifying resolutions on those fronts. Federal Reserve policy has remained unchanged, with no large rate cuts or leadership shifts reported. Midterm election dynamics and other domestic developments have not triggered the market's specific criteria either. Traders' consensus on a high probability for "Nothing" reflects the absence of these catalysts so far, though late-month events could still alter outcomes.