Incumbent Republican Tom Cole has held Oklahoma's 4th congressional district since 2003 and won reelection in 2024 with over 65 percent of the vote in a seat rated solidly Republican by major forecasters. The district's strong conservative lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance across southern Oklahoma counties including Norman and Lawton, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. Cole's substantial campaign reserves and primary matchup against a lesser-known challenger on June 16 further reinforce this positioning ahead of the Democratic primary contest. A national political shift producing unusually high Democratic turnout or an unexpected primary upset could narrow the margin, though historical results and structural factors limit realistic paths to a Democratic victory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOK-04 Wahlsieger
OK-04 Wahlsieger
$22,500 Vol.
$22,500 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
94%
Demokratische Partei
10%
$22,500 Vol.
$22,500 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$14,337 Vol.
94%
Demokratische Partei
$8,163 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom Cole has held Oklahoma's 4th congressional district since 2003 and won reelection in 2024 with over 65 percent of the vote in a seat rated solidly Republican by major forecasters. The district's strong conservative lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance across southern Oklahoma counties including Norman and Lawton, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. Cole's substantial campaign reserves and primary matchup against a lesser-known challenger on June 16 further reinforce this positioning ahead of the Democratic primary contest. A national political shift producing unusually high Democratic turnout or an unexpected primary upset could narrow the margin, though historical results and structural factors limit realistic paths to a Democratic victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$22,500Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom Cole has held Oklahoma's 4th congressional district since 2003 and won reelection in 2024 with over 65 percent of the vote in a seat rated solidly Republican by major forecasters. The district's strong conservative lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance across southern Oklahoma counties including Norman and Lawton, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. Cole's substantial campaign reserves and primary matchup against a lesser-known challenger on June 16 further reinforce this positioning ahead of the Democratic primary contest. A national political shift producing unusually high Democratic turnout or an unexpected primary upset could narrow the margin, though historical results and structural factors limit realistic paths to a Democratic victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$22,500Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cole has held Oklahoma's 4th congressional district since 2003 and won reelection in 2024 with over 65 percent of the vote in a seat rated solidly Republican by major forecasters. The district's strong conservative lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance across southern Oklahoma counties including Norman and Lawton, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election. Cole's substantial campaign reserves and primary matchup against a lesser-known challenger on June 16 further reinforce this positioning ahead of the Democratic primary contest. A national political shift producing unusually high Democratic turnout or an unexpected primary upset could narrow the margin, though historical results and structural factors limit realistic paths to a Democratic victory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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