Recent April–August polling from firms like Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) consistently leading with 18–28% support, while a tight battle persists among Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), Eduardo da Fonte (PP), Túlio Gadêlha (PSD), and others for the remaining position. The fragmented field, with more than a dozen registered candidates for two seats and no dominant challenger emerging, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even for second place. Recent asset declarations, party switches such as Túlio Gadêlha’s move to PSD, and ongoing coalition negotiations have not yet produced clear separation. Late-campaign events including debates, endorsements, turnout shifts in key regions, or last-minute alliances could consolidate support and move the market ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPaulo Rubem Santiago 46%
Túlio Gadêlha 46%
Samuel Timoteo 45%
Mariano Macedo 44%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Paulo Rubem Santiago
46%
Túlio Gadêlha
46%
Samuel Timoteo
45%
Mariano Macedo
44%
Carlos Sant'Anna
43%
Eduardo da Fonte
43%
Mendonça Filho
43%
Gorett Bitu
43%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
43%
Humberto Costa
41%
Marília Arraes
40%
Mailson da Silva Neto
40%
Paulo Rubem Santiago 46%
Túlio Gadêlha 46%
Samuel Timoteo 45%
Mariano Macedo 44%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$0 Vol.
46%
Túlio Gadêlha
$0 Vol.
46%
Samuel Timoteo
$0 Vol.
45%
Mariano Macedo
$0 Vol.
44%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$0 Vol.
43%
Eduardo da Fonte
$0 Vol.
43%
Mendonça Filho
$0 Vol.
43%
Gorett Bitu
$0 Vol.
43%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$0 Vol.
43%
Humberto Costa
$0 Vol.
41%
Marília Arraes
$0 Vol.
40%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$0 Vol.
40%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent April–August polling from firms like Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) consistently leading with 18–28% support, while a tight battle persists among Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), Eduardo da Fonte (PP), Túlio Gadêlha (PSD), and others for the remaining position. The fragmented field, with more than a dozen registered candidates for two seats and no dominant challenger emerging, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even for second place. Recent asset declarations, party switches such as Túlio Gadêlha’s move to PSD, and ongoing coalition negotiations have not yet produced clear separation. Late-campaign events including debates, endorsements, turnout shifts in key regions, or last-minute alliances could consolidate support and move the market ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent April–August polling from firms like Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) consistently leading with 18–28% support, while a tight battle persists among Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), Eduardo da Fonte (PP), Túlio Gadêlha (PSD), and others for the remaining position. The fragmented field, with more than a dozen registered candidates for two seats and no dominant challenger emerging, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even for second place. Recent asset declarations, party switches such as Túlio Gadêlha’s move to PSD, and ongoing coalition negotiations have not yet produced clear separation. Late-campaign events including debates, endorsements, turnout shifts in key regions, or last-minute alliances could consolidate support and move the market ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April–August polling from firms like Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) consistently leading with 18–28% support, while a tight battle persists among Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), Eduardo da Fonte (PP), Túlio Gadêlha (PSD), and others for the remaining position. The fragmented field, with more than a dozen registered candidates for two seats and no dominant challenger emerging, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even for second place. Recent asset declarations, party switches such as Túlio Gadêlha’s move to PSD, and ongoing coalition negotiations have not yet produced clear separation. Late-campaign events including debates, endorsements, turnout shifts in key regions, or last-minute alliances could consolidate support and move the market ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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