Traders assign a 98.5 percent implied probability against Prince Andrew, now known as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, facing a prison sentence because the Thames Valley Police investigation into alleged misconduct in public office has produced no charges seven months after his February 2026 arrest. The probe, tied to his past role as UK trade envoy and contacts with Jeffrey Epstein, remains stalled over access to original US documents, leaving him under investigation but without formal conditions or active proceedings. This lack of prosecutable evidence aligns with historical patterns for such complex cases, where conviction requires meeting the Crown Prosecution Service threshold. Realistic shifts could occur if requested US files arrive and support charges, new witnesses emerge, or authorities expand the inquiry, though current timelines suggest resolution remains distant.