Former FBI Director James Comey faces two federal felony counts in North Carolina stemming from a May 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47,” which prosecutors allege constituted a threat against President Trump. The case, indicted in April 2026, remains in pretrial motions before a Bush-appointed district judge, with arraignment set for September 30 and trial for October 21. Comey’s team argues the post falls short of the true-threat standard, constitutes protected speech, and reflects selective or vindictive prosecution tied to prior political disputes. An earlier Virginia indictment was dismissed, and appeals in that matter continue separately. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no prison sentence this year, reflecting the case’s early procedural posture, the high evidentiary bar for social-media threat convictions, and limited time for trial, verdict, and sentencing before December 31. A denial of dismissal motions followed by swift conviction and sentencing remains the primary path that could alter the outcome.