Adama Barrow, the incumbent National People's Party president seeking a third term, leads trader consensus in the December 5, 2026, Gambian presidential election due to his established position and stronger perceived electability in recent opinion surveys compared to declared challengers. Polling from mid-2026 placed him ahead in vote intention and far ahead on who voters expect to win, with Ousainou Darboe of the United Democratic Party as the nearest rival and Talib Ahmed Bensouda, Essa Faal, Bakary K. Badjie, Mama Kandeh, and Mohamed Al Amin Bah trailing further back in a fragmented field. Early September protests over electricity shortages prompted Barrow to announce new generation capacity and solar projects by October, while opposition figures continue to criticize governance and constitutional issues around term limits. These factors, alongside the first-past-the-post system and limited recent shifts in the campaign, underpin the current implied probabilities.