Amcha Yisrael, a right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, seeks to draw nationalist voters with a platform focused on security decisiveness, opposition to a Palestinian state, and greater Haredi military service. Recent mid-September polls from Channel 12 and Kan show the party reaching or just clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold for roughly four Knesset seats, aided by slate diversity including Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad. Traders assign the highest probability to a sub-2.5% share, reflecting caution over the new list's ability to sustain momentum or avoid splitting the right-wing vote ahead of the October 27 election, while placing secondary weight on outcomes near or modestly above the threshold.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert3,25-4% 31%
<2,5 % 28%
2,5-3,25% 18%
5 %+ 15%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
<2,5 %
48%
2,5-3,25%
18%
3,25-4%
32%
4-5%
23%
5 %+
15%
3,25-4% 31%
<2,5 % 28%
2,5-3,25% 18%
5 %+ 15%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
<2,5 %
$20 Vol.
48%
2,5-3,25%
$0 Vol.
18%
3,25-4%
$38 Vol.
32%
4-5%
$13 Vol.
23%
5 %+
$70 Vol.
15%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, a right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, seeks to draw nationalist voters with a platform focused on security decisiveness, opposition to a Palestinian state, and greater Haredi military service. Recent mid-September polls from Channel 12 and Kan show the party reaching or just clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold for roughly four Knesset seats, aided by slate diversity including Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad. Traders assign the highest probability to a sub-2.5% share, reflecting caution over the new list's ability to sustain momentum or avoid splitting the right-wing vote ahead of the October 27 election, while placing secondary weight on outcomes near or modestly above the threshold.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volumen
$141Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, a right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, seeks to draw nationalist voters with a platform focused on security decisiveness, opposition to a Palestinian state, and greater Haredi military service. Recent mid-September polls from Channel 12 and Kan show the party reaching or just clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold for roughly four Knesset seats, aided by slate diversity including Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad. Traders assign the highest probability to a sub-2.5% share, reflecting caution over the new list's ability to sustain momentum or avoid splitting the right-wing vote ahead of the October 27 election, while placing secondary weight on outcomes near or modestly above the threshold.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volumen
$141Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Amcha Yisrael, a right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, seeks to draw nationalist voters with a platform focused on security decisiveness, opposition to a Palestinian state, and greater Haredi military service. Recent mid-September polls from Channel 12 and Kan show the party reaching or just clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold for roughly four Knesset seats, aided by slate diversity including Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad. Traders assign the highest probability to a sub-2.5% share, reflecting caution over the new list's ability to sustain momentum or avoid splitting the right-wing vote ahead of the October 27 election, while placing secondary weight on outcomes near or modestly above the threshold.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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