Recent polling ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections shows A Just Russia (SR) hovering near the 5% proportional representation threshold required for party-list seats. Independent surveys such as ExtremeScan place it at roughly 4–6% among decided voters, while state-affiliated pollsters like FOM and VTsIOM report figures between 4% and 7%. SR’s position reflects its weakened organizational base, leadership transitions, and competition from New People, though the party retains its parliamentary status from 2021 and benefits from the tightly managed electoral environment. The 60% implied probability for clearing the threshold captures trader assessment of these borderline numbers alongside the possibility of administrative support in single-mandate districts or adjustments to maintain the existing five-party Duma configuration. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this narrow margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
59% Chance
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
Ja
59% Chance
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections shows A Just Russia (SR) hovering near the 5% proportional representation threshold required for party-list seats. Independent surveys such as ExtremeScan place it at roughly 4–6% among decided voters, while state-affiliated pollsters like FOM and VTsIOM report figures between 4% and 7%. SR’s position reflects its weakened organizational base, leadership transitions, and competition from New People, though the party retains its parliamentary status from 2021 and benefits from the tightly managed electoral environment. The 60% implied probability for clearing the threshold captures trader assessment of these borderline numbers alongside the possibility of administrative support in single-mandate districts or adjustments to maintain the existing five-party Duma configuration. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this narrow margin.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Volumen
$1,544Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections shows A Just Russia (SR) hovering near the 5% proportional representation threshold required for party-list seats. Independent surveys such as ExtremeScan place it at roughly 4–6% among decided voters, while state-affiliated pollsters like FOM and VTsIOM report figures between 4% and 7%. SR’s position reflects its weakened organizational base, leadership transitions, and competition from New People, though the party retains its parliamentary status from 2021 and benefits from the tightly managed electoral environment. The 60% implied probability for clearing the threshold captures trader assessment of these borderline numbers alongside the possibility of administrative support in single-mandate districts or adjustments to maintain the existing five-party Duma configuration. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this narrow margin.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volumen
$1,544Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections shows A Just Russia (SR) hovering near the 5% proportional representation threshold required for party-list seats. Independent surveys such as ExtremeScan place it at roughly 4–6% among decided voters, while state-affiliated pollsters like FOM and VTsIOM report figures between 4% and 7%. SR’s position reflects its weakened organizational base, leadership transitions, and competition from New People, though the party retains its parliamentary status from 2021 and benefits from the tightly managed electoral environment. The 60% implied probability for clearing the threshold captures trader assessment of these borderline numbers alongside the possibility of administrative support in single-mandate districts or adjustments to maintain the existing five-party Duma configuration. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this narrow margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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