Recent polls for the October 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election show a fragmented field with Professora Dorinha and Vicentinho Júnior trading narrow leads or tying in the low-to-mid 30s, while Laurez Moreira, Ataídes de Oliveira, and others trail in single digits or low double digits. The absence of a clear frontrunner stems from the open contest, current interim leadership dynamics, and competing party coalitions without decisive momentum shifts in the past month. Traders price the outcome near even odds across top names because the multi-candidate first round and potential runoff leave ample room for late polling movement, candidate alliances, or turnout changes in key regions before September conventions finalize the ballot.