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icon for Wird Russland Svitle erobern, indem...?
Geopolitik·Ukraine-Karte

Wird Russland Svitle erobern, indem...?

icon for Wird Russland Svitle erobern, indem...?
Geopolitik·Ukraine-Karte

Wird Russland Svitle erobern, indem...?

NEU
31. Aug. 2026
Polymarket

$5,562 Vol.

Polymarket

31. August

$2,712 Vol.

29%

31. Oktober

$2,850 Vol.

36%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have advanced steadily in Donetsk Oblast amid ongoing attritional fighting near Pokrovsk, with the Russian Defense Ministry announcing control of Svitle on July 29, 2026, alongside nearby settlements. This follows incremental Russian gains in the sector, supported by concentrated assaults and drone interdiction that complicate Ukrainian logistics and reinforcements. Ukrainian units continue defensive operations and deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, though these have not reversed local pressure around the village. Trader sentiment reflects the timing of these battlefield reports relative to any market deadline, alongside broader patterns of Russian incremental progress versus Ukrainian efforts to stabilize the front through reserves and counter-battery fire.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png

Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,562
Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 5, 2026, 8:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have advanced steadily in Donetsk Oblast amid ongoing attritional fighting near Pokrovsk, with the Russian Defense Ministry announcing control of Svitle on July 29, 2026, alongside nearby settlements. This follows incremental Russian gains in the sector, supported by concentrated assaults and drone interdiction that complicate Ukrainian logistics and reinforcements. Ukrainian units continue defensive operations and deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, though these have not reversed local pressure around the village. Trader sentiment reflects the timing of these battlefield reports relative to any market deadline, alongside broader patterns of Russian incremental progress versus Ukrainian efforts to stabilize the front through reserves and counter-battery fire.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png

Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,562
Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 5, 2026, 8:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wird Russland Svitle erobern, indem...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. Oktober" mit 36%, gefolgt von „31. August" mit 29%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 36¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 36% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wird Russland Svitle erobern, indem...?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 5, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Wird Russland Svitle erobern, indem...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wird Russland Svitle erobern, indem...?" ist „31. Oktober" mit 36%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 36% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „31. August" mit 29%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wird Russland Svitle erobern, indem...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.