Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 election shows the Parti Québécois leading popular vote intentions at roughly 29-30 percent, with the CAQ rising to second place near 24 percent and the Liberals slipping to 22 percent. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ on track for a plurality of roughly 44-49 seats in the 127-seat National Assembly, well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The fragmented five-party field, concentrated francophone support for the PQ, and tightening PQ-CAQ contests in dozens of ridings have kept majority odds low despite the PQ’s status as the likely largest party. High undecided voters and regional vote patterns further reduce the likelihood of any single party securing a majority government.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert29% Chance
NEU
NEU
5. Okt. 2026
29% Chance
NEU
NEU
5. Okt. 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 election shows the Parti Québécois leading popular vote intentions at roughly 29-30 percent, with the CAQ rising to second place near 24 percent and the Liberals slipping to 22 percent. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ on track for a plurality of roughly 44-49 seats in the 127-seat National Assembly, well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The fragmented five-party field, concentrated francophone support for the PQ, and tightening PQ-CAQ contests in dozens of ridings have kept majority odds low despite the PQ’s status as the likely largest party. High undecided voters and regional vote patterns further reduce the likelihood of any single party securing a majority government.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volumen
$880Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 election shows the Parti Québécois leading popular vote intentions at roughly 29-30 percent, with the CAQ rising to second place near 24 percent and the Liberals slipping to 22 percent. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ on track for a plurality of roughly 44-49 seats in the 127-seat National Assembly, well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The fragmented five-party field, concentrated francophone support for the PQ, and tightening PQ-CAQ contests in dozens of ridings have kept majority odds low despite the PQ’s status as the likely largest party. High undecided voters and regional vote patterns further reduce the likelihood of any single party securing a majority government.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$880Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 election shows the Parti Québécois leading popular vote intentions at roughly 29-30 percent, with the CAQ rising to second place near 24 percent and the Liberals slipping to 22 percent. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ on track for a plurality of roughly 44-49 seats in the 127-seat National Assembly, well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The fragmented five-party field, concentrated francophone support for the PQ, and tightening PQ-CAQ contests in dozens of ridings have kept majority odds low despite the PQ’s status as the likely largest party. High undecided voters and regional vote patterns further reduce the likelihood of any single party securing a majority government.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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