The Trump administration has pursued maximum economic pressure on Cuba through an oil import blockade, secondary sanctions on foreign firms and Cuban military-linked entities, and tariffs targeting third-country suppliers since early 2026. These measures, alongside an indictment of Raúl Castro and demands for security concessions from China and Russia, aim at regime change or negotiated liberalization without direct military intervention. Ongoing bilateral talks, Cuban reform announcements, and continued commercial flights and agricultural trade reflect a preference for coercive diplomacy over invasion. Pentagon asset positioning and contingency planning have occurred amid Venezuela precedent discussions, yet no large-scale troop movements or authorization for combat operations have materialized by September. Traders assign a 93.5% probability to no U.S. invasion this year due to the high costs, logistical challenges, and preference for non-kinetic tools in a closely watched Western Hemisphere policy.