U.S. policy toward Cuba in 2026 centers on sustained economic pressure through an oil import blockade initiated in February, expanded sanctions via executive orders targeting energy, defense, and tourism sectors, and additional designations in July against state entities. Naval assets including the USS Nimitz strike group and Marine units have been positioned in the Caribbean for surveillance and contingency planning, alongside reconnaissance flights, yet senior defense discussions emphasize options short of territorial occupation. Ongoing U.S. commitments in the Persian Gulf further constrain large-scale ground force deployments required for an invasion. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability for no invasion, as the administration has prioritized sanctions and diplomatic leverage over direct military action through the first seven months of the year.