Heightened U.S. sanctions, including January 2026 executive orders imposing tariffs on third-country oil shipments to Cuba and halting Venezuelan supplies after the Maduro operation, have intensified economic pressure without triggering invasion planning. Official statements from the Trump administration emphasize regime accountability, reforms, and potential aid packages tied to policy changes rather than military action, while Cuban leaders reject preconditions and affirm defensive readiness. Ongoing surveillance flights, limited naval presence, and diplomatic contacts further signal a pressure campaign focused on economic leverage and negotiations. This sustained approach through mid-2026, absent direct mobilization or escalation signals, underpins the trader consensus assigning over 90% probability against a U.S. invasion occurring before year-end.