Trader sentiment on the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on steady global seismic patterns tracked by the USGS, which records about 15-20 such events annually, or roughly one every 10-18 days. The most recent struck the Drake Passage on December 5 (M7.0), following a cluster including South Sandwich Islands (M7.1, Nov 24) and Flores Sea (M7.0, Nov 11), reflecting typical activity along the Ring of Fire and subduction zones without unusual upticks. No reliable short-term forecasting exists, so markets aggregate statistical baselines and real-time monitoring data; heightened scrutiny follows major quakes due to aftershock risks, but probabilities remain driven by historical averages amid unpredictable plate tectonics. Key watch areas include Pacific hotspots, with resolution tied precisely to USGS-verified magnitudes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Otro terremoto de 7.0 o más por...?
¿Otro terremoto de 7.0 o más por...?
NEW
May 31, 2026
31 de marzo
18%
30 de abril
81%
31 de mayo
90%
$7,763 Vol.
31 de marzo
$3,110 Vol.
18%
30 de abril
$2,671 Vol.
81%
31 de mayo
$1,982 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment on the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on steady global seismic patterns tracked by the USGS, which records about 15-20 such events annually, or roughly one every 10-18 days. The most recent struck the Drake Passage on December 5 (M7.0), following a cluster including South Sandwich Islands (M7.1, Nov 24) and Flores Sea (M7.0, Nov 11), reflecting typical activity along the Ring of Fire and subduction zones without unusual upticks. No reliable short-term forecasting exists, so markets aggregate statistical baselines and real-time monitoring data; heightened scrutiny follows major quakes due to aftershock risks, but probabilities remain driven by historical averages amid unpredictable plate tectonics. Key watch areas include Pacific hotspots, with resolution tied precisely to USGS-verified magnitudes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET
Volumen
$7,763Fecha de finalización
May 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment on the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on steady global seismic patterns tracked by the USGS, which records about 15-20 such events annually, or roughly one every 10-18 days. The most recent struck the Drake Passage on December 5 (M7.0), following a cluster including South Sandwich Islands (M7.1, Nov 24) and Flores Sea (M7.0, Nov 11), reflecting typical activity along the Ring of Fire and subduction zones without unusual upticks. No reliable short-term forecasting exists, so markets aggregate statistical baselines and real-time monitoring data; heightened scrutiny follows major quakes due to aftershock risks, but probabilities remain driven by historical averages amid unpredictable plate tectonics. Key watch areas include Pacific hotspots, with resolution tied precisely to USGS-verified magnitudes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$7,763Fecha de finalización
May 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on steady global seismic patterns tracked by the USGS, which records about 15-20 such events annually, or roughly one every 10-18 days. The most recent struck the Drake Passage on December 5 (M7.0), following a cluster including South Sandwich Islands (M7.1, Nov 24) and Flores Sea (M7.0, Nov 11), reflecting typical activity along the Ring of Fire and subduction zones without unusual upticks. No reliable short-term forecasting exists, so markets aggregate statistical baselines and real-time monitoring data; heightened scrutiny follows major quakes due to aftershock risks, but probabilities remain driven by historical averages amid unpredictable plate tectonics. Key watch areas include Pacific hotspots, with resolution tied precisely to USGS-verified magnitudes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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