Skip to main content
icon for Límite de mercado de cierre de IPO antrópica

Límite de mercado de cierre de IPO antrópica

icon for Límite de mercado de cierre de IPO antrópica

Límite de mercado de cierre de IPO antrópica

Sin IPO para el 30 de junio de 2026 100.0%

Título del ítem del grupo: <100B <1%

100–200B <1%

200–300 mil millones <1%

Polymarket

$1,814,139 Vol.

Sin IPO para el 30 de junio de 2026 100.0%

Título del ítem del grupo: <100B <1%

100–200B <1%

200–300 mil millones <1%

Polymarket

$1,814,139 Vol.

Título del ítem del grupo: <100B

$325,419 Vol.

<1%

100–200B

$154,179 Vol.

<1%

200–300 mil millones

$180,971 Vol.

<1%

300–400 mil millones

$135,124 Vol.

<1%

400–600 mil millones

$249,502 Vol.

<1%

600 mil millones+

$343,649 Vol.

<1%

Sin IPO para el 30 de junio de 2026

$425,295 Vol.

100%

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.**Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Anthropic IPO closing by June 30, 2026, reflecting the early stage of the company’s process and standard regulatory timelines.** Anthropic confidentially filed its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on June 1, 2026, shortly after a $65 billion funding round that valued the artificial intelligence developer of the Claude large language models at $965 billion. The company explicitly stated that any public offering would depend on market conditions and completion of the SEC review, with no public filing or pricing details released. Analyst consensus and historical precedents for confidential filings point to a potential debut in the second half of 2026, most likely fall or Q4, after the typical multi-month comment-and-amendment cycle. With only about 12 days remaining until the resolution date, an IPO closing is mechanically implausible absent an unprecedented acceleration that has never occurred for a company of this scale. The slim odds attached to any specific closing market-cap bucket (each at 0.1–0.3%) further underscore that the market views a near-term listing as effectively off the table. A realistic challenge would require an extraordinarily rapid SEC turnaround combined with immediate market readiness—scenarios that remain highly improbable given the complexity of Anthropic’s revenue accounting, AI-safety disclosures, and overall size.

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,814,139
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.**Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Anthropic IPO closing by June 30, 2026, reflecting the early stage of the company’s process and standard regulatory timelines.** Anthropic confidentially filed its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on June 1, 2026, shortly after a $65 billion funding round that valued the artificial intelligence developer of the Claude large language models at $965 billion. The company explicitly stated that any public offering would depend on market conditions and completion of the SEC review, with no public filing or pricing details released. Analyst consensus and historical precedents for confidential filings point to a potential debut in the second half of 2026, most likely fall or Q4, after the typical multi-month comment-and-amendment cycle. With only about 12 days remaining until the resolution date, an IPO closing is mechanically implausible absent an unprecedented acceleration that has never occurred for a company of this scale. The slim odds attached to any specific closing market-cap bucket (each at 0.1–0.3%) further underscore that the market views a near-term listing as effectively off the table. A realistic challenge would require an extraordinarily rapid SEC turnaround combined with immediate market readiness—scenarios that remain highly improbable given the complexity of Anthropic’s revenue accounting, AI-safety disclosures, and overall size.

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,814,139
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Límite de mercado de cierre de IPO antrópica" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Sin IPO para el 30 de junio de 2026" con 100%, seguido de "Título del ítem del grupo: <100B" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Límite de mercado de cierre de IPO antrópica" ha generado $1.8 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Sep 22, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Límite de mercado de cierre de IPO antrópica", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Límite de mercado de cierre de IPO antrópica" es "Sin IPO para el 30 de junio de 2026" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Título del ítem del grupo: <100B" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Límite de mercado de cierre de IPO antrópica" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.