Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, facing Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green. The district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+23 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus around the Republican nominee. Crawford’s unopposed March primary and long tenure since 2011 further reinforce continuity. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. While a broad national swing, health-related withdrawal, or major late-cycle controversy could narrow the gap, current fundamentals and historical voting patterns sustain the wide implied probability favoring the Republican outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAR-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AR-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$18,774 Vol.
$18,774 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Demócrata
6%
$18,774 Vol.
$18,774 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$11,178 Vol.
93%
Partido Demócrata
$7,596 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, facing Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green. The district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+23 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus around the Republican nominee. Crawford’s unopposed March primary and long tenure since 2011 further reinforce continuity. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. While a broad national swing, health-related withdrawal, or major late-cycle controversy could narrow the gap, current fundamentals and historical voting patterns sustain the wide implied probability favoring the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$18,774Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, facing Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green. The district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+23 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus around the Republican nominee. Crawford’s unopposed March primary and long tenure since 2011 further reinforce continuity. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. While a broad national swing, health-related withdrawal, or major late-cycle controversy could narrow the gap, current fundamentals and historical voting patterns sustain the wide implied probability favoring the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$18,774Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, facing Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green. The district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+23 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus around the Republican nominee. Crawford’s unopposed March primary and long tenure since 2011 further reinforce continuity. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. While a broad national swing, health-related withdrawal, or major late-cycle controversy could narrow the gap, current fundamentals and historical voting patterns sustain the wide implied probability favoring the Republican outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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