Recent sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell, including claims of assault by multiple women and a new accusation of drugging and rape in 2018 from Lonna Drewes, prompted his resignation from Congress on April 14 and the House Ethics Committee's probe into potential Code of Official Conduct violations. Manhattan DA and Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department launched criminal investigations, but no charges or arrest warrants have been issued, with Swalwell denying the claims as false. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" reflects the early investigative stage, typical procedural timelines for such cases exceeding the six-week window to May 31, and lack of prior criminal jeopardy despite past scrutiny over Chinese spy ties. Late-breaking evidence or rapid escalation could shift odds, though historical patterns favor prolonged reviews.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell, including claims of assault by multiple women and a new accusation of drugging and rape in 2018 from Lonna Drewes, prompted his resignation from Congress on April 14 and the House Ethics Committee's probe into potential Code of Official Conduct violations. Manhattan DA and Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department launched criminal investigations, but no charges or arrest warrants have been issued, with Swalwell denying the claims as false. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" reflects the early investigative stage, typical procedural timelines for such cases exceeding the six-week window to May 31, and lack of prior criminal jeopardy despite past scrutiny over Chinese spy ties. Late-breaking evidence or rapid escalation could shift odds, though historical patterns favor prolonged reviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ET
Volumen
$1,149Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell, including claims of assault by multiple women and a new accusation of drugging and rape in 2018 from Lonna Drewes, prompted his resignation from Congress on April 14 and the House Ethics Committee's probe into potential Code of Official Conduct violations. Manhattan DA and Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department launched criminal investigations, but no charges or arrest warrants have been issued, with Swalwell denying the claims as false. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" reflects the early investigative stage, typical procedural timelines for such cases exceeding the six-week window to May 31, and lack of prior criminal jeopardy despite past scrutiny over Chinese spy ties. Late-breaking evidence or rapid escalation could shift odds, though historical patterns favor prolonged reviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,149Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell, including claims of assault by multiple women and a new accusation of drugging and rape in 2018 from Lonna Drewes, prompted his resignation from Congress on April 14 and the House Ethics Committee's probe into potential Code of Official Conduct violations. Manhattan DA and Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department launched criminal investigations, but no charges or arrest warrants have been issued, with Swalwell denying the claims as false. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" reflects the early investigative stage, typical procedural timelines for such cases exceeding the six-week window to May 31, and lack of prior criminal jeopardy despite past scrutiny over Chinese spy ties. Late-breaking evidence or rapid escalation could shift odds, though historical patterns favor prolonged reviews.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes