Trader consensus heavily favors the Prosperity Party at 94% implied probability to win Ethiopia's parliamentary election on June 1, driven by its status as the incumbent ruling party under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, which secured a landslide in 2021 and has fielded nearly 3,000 candidates across most constituencies. Recent National Election Board of Ethiopia actions, including voter registration launch on March 7 and candidate deadlines met in late February, alongside PP's vigorous campaigning—such as manifesto unveilings and symbol changes to wheat—underscore organizational strength amid fragmented opposition from 23 accredited parties. PP's decision to skip contests in Tigray and select Amhara/Addis Ababa areas further consolidates its path to majority. Upsets could arise from escalating regional conflicts in Amhara or Oromia, voting disruptions, or credible irregularities claims, though no polls indicate viable challengers.