Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a cumulative flu hospitalization rate of 80–85 per 100,000 population through week 12 (late March) 2026 at 68% implied probability, aligning closely with the median from CDC FluSurv-NET historical data across moderate seasons since 2010, where rates typically range 70–90 by mid-March amid waning winter peaks. This positioning reflects stable epidemiological baselines, with annual severity driven by influenza strain dominance—often A(H3N2)—vaccine matching, and population immunity levels, rather than short-term anomalies. The ongoing 2024–25 season's hospitalization rate has declined sharply to under 2 per 100,000 weekly (cumulative ~50), marking a mild year consistent with good vaccine efficacy but underscoring yearly variability; no major shifts like novel variants have emerged in recent CDC surveillance to alter 2026 forecasts. Watch for WHO's September 2025 northern hemisphere vaccine strain recommendations, which could signal mismatch risks influencing transmission dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
90–95 10%
95+ 9.8%
85–90 5.5%
<75 2.5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<75
2%
75–80
21%
80–85
60%
85–90
24%
90–95
10%
95+
10%
90–95 10%
95+ 9.8%
85–90 5.5%
<75 2.5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<75
$145 Vol.
2%
75–80
$171 Vol.
21%
80–85
$327 Vol.
60%
85–90
$158 Vol.
24%
90–95
$2,983 Vol.
10%
95+
$110 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a cumulative flu hospitalization rate of 80–85 per 100,000 population through week 12 (late March) 2026 at 68% implied probability, aligning closely with the median from CDC FluSurv-NET historical data across moderate seasons since 2010, where rates typically range 70–90 by mid-March amid waning winter peaks. This positioning reflects stable epidemiological baselines, with annual severity driven by influenza strain dominance—often A(H3N2)—vaccine matching, and population immunity levels, rather than short-term anomalies. The ongoing 2024–25 season's hospitalization rate has declined sharply to under 2 per 100,000 weekly (cumulative ~50), marking a mild year consistent with good vaccine efficacy but underscoring yearly variability; no major shifts like novel variants have emerged in recent CDC surveillance to alter 2026 forecasts. Watch for WHO's September 2025 northern hemisphere vaccine strain recommendations, which could signal mismatch risks influencing transmission dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
Volumen
$3,895Fecha de finalización
Apr 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a cumulative flu hospitalization rate of 80–85 per 100,000 population through week 12 (late March) 2026 at 68% implied probability, aligning closely with the median from CDC FluSurv-NET historical data across moderate seasons since 2010, where rates typically range 70–90 by mid-March amid waning winter peaks. This positioning reflects stable epidemiological baselines, with annual severity driven by influenza strain dominance—often A(H3N2)—vaccine matching, and population immunity levels, rather than short-term anomalies. The ongoing 2024–25 season's hospitalization rate has declined sharply to under 2 per 100,000 weekly (cumulative ~50), marking a mild year consistent with good vaccine efficacy but underscoring yearly variability; no major shifts like novel variants have emerged in recent CDC surveillance to alter 2026 forecasts. Watch for WHO's September 2025 northern hemisphere vaccine strain recommendations, which could signal mismatch risks influencing transmission dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volumen
$3,895Fecha de finalización
Apr 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a cumulative flu hospitalization rate of 80–85 per 100,000 population through week 12 (late March) 2026 at 68% implied probability, aligning closely with the median from CDC FluSurv-NET historical data across moderate seasons since 2010, where rates typically range 70–90 by mid-March amid waning winter peaks. This positioning reflects stable epidemiological baselines, with annual severity driven by influenza strain dominance—often A(H3N2)—vaccine matching, and population immunity levels, rather than short-term anomalies. The ongoing 2024–25 season's hospitalization rate has declined sharply to under 2 per 100,000 weekly (cumulative ~50), marking a mild year consistent with good vaccine efficacy but underscoring yearly variability; no major shifts like novel variants have emerged in recent CDC surveillance to alter 2026 forecasts. Watch for WHO's September 2025 northern hemisphere vaccine strain recommendations, which could signal mismatch risks influencing transmission dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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