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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Mar 29

Apr 5

Mar 29

Apr 5

0 47%

1 31%

4 25%

2 0

Polymarket
NEW

0 47%

1 31%

4 25%

2 0

Polymarket
NEW

0

$143 Vol.

47%

1

$227 Vol.

31%

2

$71 Vol.

47%

3

$62 Vol.

42%

4

$24 Vol.

25%

5

$24 Vol.

32%

>5

$53 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "0" con 47%, seguido de "2" con 47%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 47¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 27, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?" es "0" con 47%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "2" con 47%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.