Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 31°C high temperature in Beijing today, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest hourly forecasts peaking at 30.5–31°C amid North China's first 2026 heat wave, with southerly winds and clear skies fueling daytime heating. Current observations from Beijing's official stations align closely, showing midday peaks near 30°C under hazy sunshine, consistent with model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS outputs. This positioning reflects strong scientific alignment between short-range numerical weather prediction models and real-time data. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen surge in solar insolation or wind shift boosting late-afternoon temps to 32°C, though low cloud cover probabilities and historical May precedents (averaging 26°C highs) limit upside risk; final CMA confirmation expected post-midnight UTC+8.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 11?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 11?
31°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$150,769 Vol.
$150,769 Vol.
11 may 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$150,769 Vol.
$150,769 Vol.
11 may 2026
28°C or below
$14,031 Vol.
No
29°C
$17,323 Vol.
No
30°C
$17,830 Vol.
No
31°C
$20,580 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$19,831 Vol.
No
33°C
$11,544 Vol.
No
34°C
$16,265 Vol.
No
35°C
$11,362 Vol.
No
36°C
$10,245 Vol.
No
37°C
$6,424 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$5,335 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 31°C high temperature in Beijing today, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest hourly forecasts peaking at 30.5–31°C amid North China's first 2026 heat wave, with southerly winds and clear skies fueling daytime heating. Current observations from Beijing's official stations align closely, showing midday peaks near 30°C under hazy sunshine, consistent with model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS outputs. This positioning reflects strong scientific alignment between short-range numerical weather prediction models and real-time data. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen surge in solar insolation or wind shift boosting late-afternoon temps to 32°C, though low cloud cover probabilities and historical May precedents (averaging 26°C highs) limit upside risk; final CMA confirmation expected post-midnight UTC+8.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 9, 2026, 7:01 AM ET
Volumen
$150,769Fecha de finalización
11 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 9, 2026, 7:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 31°C high temperature in Beijing today, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest hourly forecasts peaking at 30.5–31°C amid North China's first 2026 heat wave, with southerly winds and clear skies fueling daytime heating. Current observations from Beijing's official stations align closely, showing midday peaks near 30°C under hazy sunshine, consistent with model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS outputs. This positioning reflects strong scientific alignment between short-range numerical weather prediction models and real-time data. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen surge in solar insolation or wind shift boosting late-afternoon temps to 32°C, though low cloud cover probabilities and historical May precedents (averaging 26°C highs) limit upside risk; final CMA confirmation expected post-midnight UTC+8.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$150,769Fecha de finalización
11 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 9, 2026, 7:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 31°C high temperature in Beijing today, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest hourly forecasts peaking at 30.5–31°C amid North China's first 2026 heat wave, with southerly winds and clear skies fueling daytime heating. Current observations from Beijing's official stations align closely, showing midday peaks near 30°C under hazy sunshine, consistent with model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS outputs. This positioning reflects strong scientific alignment between short-range numerical weather prediction models and real-time data. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen surge in solar insolation or wind shift boosting late-afternoon temps to 32°C, though low cloud cover probabilities and historical May precedents (averaging 26°C highs) limit upside risk; final CMA confirmation expected post-midnight UTC+8.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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