Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a mild winter high near 20°C for Cape Town on August 1, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24–25°C because traders weigh the potential for warmer-than-average conditions driven by variable subtropical ridging, reduced cloud cover, and light northerly flow that can elevate daytime maxima several degrees above the 17–18°C seasonal norm. Ensemble spread in short-range forecasts creates the near-even split between those two outcomes, while lower probabilities for 27°C or above reflect the low likelihood of strong warm advection or berg wind events this early in the season. Updated model runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift consensus before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Ciudad del Cabo el 1 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Ciudad del Cabo el 1 de agosto?
24°C 24%
26°C 24%
25°C 24%
22°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
7%
22°C
12%
23°C
12%
24°C
24%
25°C
24%
26°C
16%
27°C
10%
28°C
4%
29°C or higher
2%
24°C 24%
26°C 24%
25°C 24%
22°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
19°C or below
$15 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$25 Vol.
1%
21°C
$40 Vol.
7%
22°C
$40 Vol.
12%
23°C
$108 Vol.
12%
24°C
$80 Vol.
24%
25°C
$57 Vol.
24%
26°C
$65 Vol.
16%
27°C
$121 Vol.
10%
28°C
$158 Vol.
4%
29°C or higher
$307 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a mild winter high near 20°C for Cape Town on August 1, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24–25°C because traders weigh the potential for warmer-than-average conditions driven by variable subtropical ridging, reduced cloud cover, and light northerly flow that can elevate daytime maxima several degrees above the 17–18°C seasonal norm. Ensemble spread in short-range forecasts creates the near-even split between those two outcomes, while lower probabilities for 27°C or above reflect the low likelihood of strong warm advection or berg wind events this early in the season. Updated model runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 30, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$1,017Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 30, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a mild winter high near 20°C for Cape Town on August 1, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24–25°C because traders weigh the potential for warmer-than-average conditions driven by variable subtropical ridging, reduced cloud cover, and light northerly flow that can elevate daytime maxima several degrees above the 17–18°C seasonal norm. Ensemble spread in short-range forecasts creates the near-even split between those two outcomes, while lower probabilities for 27°C or above reflect the low likelihood of strong warm advection or berg wind events this early in the season. Updated model runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,017Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 30, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a mild winter high near 20°C for Cape Town on August 1, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24–25°C because traders weigh the potential for warmer-than-average conditions driven by variable subtropical ridging, reduced cloud cover, and light northerly flow that can elevate daytime maxima several degrees above the 17–18°C seasonal norm. Ensemble spread in short-range forecasts creates the near-even split between those two outcomes, while lower probabilities for 27°C or above reflect the low likelihood of strong warm advection or berg wind events this early in the season. Updated model runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift consensus before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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