Persistent rain and cloud cover over Sichuan province have kept recent highs in Chengdu suppressed near or below 28°C, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 25–28°C outcomes. Official forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight ongoing thundery showers and northerly flow through early August, limiting daytime heating compared to the 31–32°C August climatological average. Model consensus shows modest variability in peak temperatures depending on exact timing of convective activity and boundary-layer moisture, with some runs favoring 26–27°C and others allowing brief clearing to 29°C. Traders appear to weigh these near-term updates heavily, as resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at local stations on August 1.