Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a high temperature of 58°F or higher in Chicago on April 3 (96% implied probability), driven by a departing cold front after April 1's observed 39°F maximum—14°F below the 54°F climatological normal at O'Hare International Airport—that has ushered southwesterly winds aloft, advecting milder air from the south. National Weather Service point forecasts for O'Hare indicate a high near 57°F under mostly cloudy skies with light winds shifting easterly, supported by late April 2 observations holding near 62°F overnight, suggesting robust warm air mass persistence despite model uncertainty in peak afternoon heating around 3-4 PM CDT. Realistic challenges include earlier shower onset or thickening cloud cover capping insolation, potentially limiting the high to 56-57°F; hourly METAR reports from NOAA will clarify through resolution based on O'Hare's official daily maximum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on April 3?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?
58°F or higher 96.1%
56-57°F 2.8%
54-55°F 1.0%
52-53°F <1%
$87,783 Vol.
$87,783 Vol.
3 abr 2026
39°F or below
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
3%
58°F or higher
96%
58°F or higher 96.1%
56-57°F 2.8%
54-55°F 1.0%
52-53°F <1%
$87,783 Vol.
$87,783 Vol.
3 abr 2026
39°F or below
$6,124 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$4,990 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$4,848 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$6,381 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$5,702 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$12,641 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$18,764 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$6,642 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$7,156 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$6,458 Vol.
3%
58°F or higher
$8,076 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a high temperature of 58°F or higher in Chicago on April 3 (96% implied probability), driven by a departing cold front after April 1's observed 39°F maximum—14°F below the 54°F climatological normal at O'Hare International Airport—that has ushered southwesterly winds aloft, advecting milder air from the south. National Weather Service point forecasts for O'Hare indicate a high near 57°F under mostly cloudy skies with light winds shifting easterly, supported by late April 2 observations holding near 62°F overnight, suggesting robust warm air mass persistence despite model uncertainty in peak afternoon heating around 3-4 PM CDT. Realistic challenges include earlier shower onset or thickening cloud cover capping insolation, potentially limiting the high to 56-57°F; hourly METAR reports from NOAA will clarify through resolution based on O'Hare's official daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volumen
$87,783Fecha de finalización
3 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a high temperature of 58°F or higher in Chicago on April 3 (96% implied probability), driven by a departing cold front after April 1's observed 39°F maximum—14°F below the 54°F climatological normal at O'Hare International Airport—that has ushered southwesterly winds aloft, advecting milder air from the south. National Weather Service point forecasts for O'Hare indicate a high near 57°F under mostly cloudy skies with light winds shifting easterly, supported by late April 2 observations holding near 62°F overnight, suggesting robust warm air mass persistence despite model uncertainty in peak afternoon heating around 3-4 PM CDT. Realistic challenges include earlier shower onset or thickening cloud cover capping insolation, potentially limiting the high to 56-57°F; hourly METAR reports from NOAA will clarify through resolution based on O'Hare's official daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$87,783Fecha de finalización
3 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a high temperature of 58°F or higher in Chicago on April 3 (96% implied probability), driven by a departing cold front after April 1's observed 39°F maximum—14°F below the 54°F climatological normal at O'Hare International Airport—that has ushered southwesterly winds aloft, advecting milder air from the south. National Weather Service point forecasts for O'Hare indicate a high near 57°F under mostly cloudy skies with light winds shifting easterly, supported by late April 2 observations holding near 62°F overnight, suggesting robust warm air mass persistence despite model uncertainty in peak afternoon heating around 3-4 PM CDT. Realistic challenges include earlier shower onset or thickening cloud cover capping insolation, potentially limiting the high to 56-57°F; hourly METAR reports from NOAA will clarify through resolution based on O'Hare's official daily maximum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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