Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 57-63°F outcomes, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF ensemble guidance projecting Chicago O'Hare highs in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, slightly above the National Weather Service climatological normal of 54.4°F for April 4. Recent blustery winds and persistent cloud cover through April 1-3 have capped warming potential, but a 10-15°F spread in model runs highlights uncertainty from variable low-level cloudiness, boundary layer mixing, and subtle shifts in upper-air steering patterns. Key differentiators include timing of any afternoon clearing versus overcast persistence, with tomorrow's 12z forecast updates from NWS Chicago expected to refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on April 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?
57°F or below 27%
58-59°F 21%
62-63°F 20%
60-61°F 17%
$47,020 Vol.
$47,020 Vol.
4 abr 2026
57°F or below
27%
58-59°F
21%
60-61°F
17%
62-63°F
20%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F or higher
<1%
57°F or below 27%
58-59°F 21%
62-63°F 20%
60-61°F 17%
$47,020 Vol.
$47,020 Vol.
4 abr 2026
57°F or below
$5,538 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$3,513 Vol.
21%
60-61°F
$4,019 Vol.
17%
62-63°F
$3,660 Vol.
20%
64-65°F
$3,345 Vol.
12%
66-67°F
$3,804 Vol.
5%
68-69°F
$5,203 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$4,447 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$6,133 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$2,449 Vol.
<1%
76°F or higher
$4,928 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 57-63°F outcomes, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF ensemble guidance projecting Chicago O'Hare highs in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, slightly above the National Weather Service climatological normal of 54.4°F for April 4. Recent blustery winds and persistent cloud cover through April 1-3 have capped warming potential, but a 10-15°F spread in model runs highlights uncertainty from variable low-level cloudiness, boundary layer mixing, and subtle shifts in upper-air steering patterns. Key differentiators include timing of any afternoon clearing versus overcast persistence, with tomorrow's 12z forecast updates from NWS Chicago expected to refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volumen
$47,020Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 57-63°F outcomes, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF ensemble guidance projecting Chicago O'Hare highs in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, slightly above the National Weather Service climatological normal of 54.4°F for April 4. Recent blustery winds and persistent cloud cover through April 1-3 have capped warming potential, but a 10-15°F spread in model runs highlights uncertainty from variable low-level cloudiness, boundary layer mixing, and subtle shifts in upper-air steering patterns. Key differentiators include timing of any afternoon clearing versus overcast persistence, with tomorrow's 12z forecast updates from NWS Chicago expected to refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$47,020Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 57-63°F outcomes, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF ensemble guidance projecting Chicago O'Hare highs in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, slightly above the National Weather Service climatological normal of 54.4°F for April 4. Recent blustery winds and persistent cloud cover through April 1-3 have capped warming potential, but a 10-15°F spread in model runs highlights uncertainty from variable low-level cloudiness, boundary layer mixing, and subtle shifts in upper-air steering patterns. Key differentiators include timing of any afternoon clearing versus overcast persistence, with tomorrow's 12z forecast updates from NWS Chicago expected to refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes