Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 26°C (42%) and 27°C (39.5%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting tight uncertainty in AEMET and global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which cluster maxima at 25–27°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light winds, and subsidence warming. Recent observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—Madrid's resolution station—hit 21.4°C on April 3, signaling the ongoing warm anomaly well above the April average of 18°C, driven by enhanced solar insolation and minimal cloud interference. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon high-cloud development, which could cap peaks at 26°C, versus stronger ridge amplification pushing to 27°C; new runs expected April 5 may sharpen the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 6?
26°C 40%
27°C 36%
25°C 12%
28°C 11.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 abr 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
12%
26°C
40%
27°C
36%
28°C
12%
29°C or higher
5%
26°C 40%
27°C 36%
25°C 12%
28°C 11.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 abr 2026
19°C or below
$443 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$772 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$493 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$481 Vol.
1%
23°C
$699 Vol.
1%
24°C
$732 Vol.
3%
25°C
$664 Vol.
12%
26°C
$581 Vol.
40%
27°C
$557 Vol.
36%
28°C
$406 Vol.
12%
29°C or higher
$299 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 26°C (42%) and 27°C (39.5%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting tight uncertainty in AEMET and global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which cluster maxima at 25–27°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light winds, and subsidence warming. Recent observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—Madrid's resolution station—hit 21.4°C on April 3, signaling the ongoing warm anomaly well above the April average of 18°C, driven by enhanced solar insolation and minimal cloud interference. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon high-cloud development, which could cap peaks at 26°C, versus stronger ridge amplification pushing to 27°C; new runs expected April 5 may sharpen the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ET
Volumen
$6,127Fecha de finalización
6 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 26°C (42%) and 27°C (39.5%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting tight uncertainty in AEMET and global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which cluster maxima at 25–27°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light winds, and subsidence warming. Recent observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—Madrid's resolution station—hit 21.4°C on April 3, signaling the ongoing warm anomaly well above the April average of 18°C, driven by enhanced solar insolation and minimal cloud interference. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon high-cloud development, which could cap peaks at 26°C, versus stronger ridge amplification pushing to 27°C; new runs expected April 5 may sharpen the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,127Fecha de finalización
6 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 26°C (42%) and 27°C (39.5%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 6, reflecting tight uncertainty in AEMET and global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which cluster maxima at 25–27°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light winds, and subsidence warming. Recent observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—Madrid's resolution station—hit 21.4°C on April 3, signaling the ongoing warm anomaly well above the April average of 18°C, driven by enhanced solar insolation and minimal cloud interference. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon high-cloud development, which could cap peaks at 26°C, versus stronger ridge amplification pushing to 27°C; new runs expected April 5 may sharpen the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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