Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 34.5% implied probability to a 12°C high temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 4—the leading outcome—slightly ahead of 13°C at 27.5%, reflecting uncertainty in the latest GFS and ECMWF forecast ensembles amid persistent cloud cover and northerly winds advecting cooler Black Sea air. These models show ensemble means clustered around 12-13°C, down from April 3's projected 17°C-plus due to a passing front suppressing diurnal heating and insolation. Differentiation hinges on cloud opacity: full overcast favors 12°C by limiting surface warming, while partial breaks could push to 13°C or 14-15°C (10.5% each). Key watch: overnight model updates and real-time observations from NOAA, with historical early-April highs averaging 14°C but variable under similar synoptic patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?
12°C 35%
13°C 27%
15°C 12%
14°C 11%
$10,440 Vol.
$10,440 Vol.
4 abr 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12°C
35%
13°C
27%
14°C
11%
15°C
12%
16°C or higher
5%
12°C 35%
13°C 27%
15°C 12%
14°C 11%
$10,440 Vol.
$10,440 Vol.
4 abr 2026
6°C or below
$1,644 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$888 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$979 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,457 Vol.
1%
10°C
$767 Vol.
3%
11°C
$971 Vol.
7%
12°C
$597 Vol.
35%
13°C
$565 Vol.
27%
14°C
$563 Vol.
11%
15°C
$859 Vol.
12%
16°C or higher
$1,151 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 34.5% implied probability to a 12°C high temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 4—the leading outcome—slightly ahead of 13°C at 27.5%, reflecting uncertainty in the latest GFS and ECMWF forecast ensembles amid persistent cloud cover and northerly winds advecting cooler Black Sea air. These models show ensemble means clustered around 12-13°C, down from April 3's projected 17°C-plus due to a passing front suppressing diurnal heating and insolation. Differentiation hinges on cloud opacity: full overcast favors 12°C by limiting surface warming, while partial breaks could push to 13°C or 14-15°C (10.5% each). Key watch: overnight model updates and real-time observations from NOAA, with historical early-April highs averaging 14°C but variable under similar synoptic patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Volumen
$10,440Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 34.5% implied probability to a 12°C high temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 4—the leading outcome—slightly ahead of 13°C at 27.5%, reflecting uncertainty in the latest GFS and ECMWF forecast ensembles amid persistent cloud cover and northerly winds advecting cooler Black Sea air. These models show ensemble means clustered around 12-13°C, down from April 3's projected 17°C-plus due to a passing front suppressing diurnal heating and insolation. Differentiation hinges on cloud opacity: full overcast favors 12°C by limiting surface warming, while partial breaks could push to 13°C or 14-15°C (10.5% each). Key watch: overnight model updates and real-time observations from NOAA, with historical early-April highs averaging 14°C but variable under similar synoptic patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$10,440Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 34.5% implied probability to a 12°C high temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 4—the leading outcome—slightly ahead of 13°C at 27.5%, reflecting uncertainty in the latest GFS and ECMWF forecast ensembles amid persistent cloud cover and northerly winds advecting cooler Black Sea air. These models show ensemble means clustered around 12-13°C, down from April 3's projected 17°C-plus due to a passing front suppressing diurnal heating and insolation. Differentiation hinges on cloud opacity: full overcast favors 12°C by limiting surface warming, while partial breaks could push to 13°C or 14-15°C (10.5% each). Key watch: overnight model updates and real-time observations from NOAA, with historical early-April highs averaging 14°C but variable under similar synoptic patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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