Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 12–14°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, reflecting ensemble forecast means from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service models clustering in this range amid a cool northerly airflow from the Black Sea. Recent 00Z and 12Z model runs over the past 24 hours show slight cooling trends due to persistent low-level clouds and 5–10 m/s winds aloft, capping daytime heating; 13°C leads as the median projection, with 12°C favored if overcast persists and 14°C possible under partial clearing. Early April climatology supports this, with historical highs averaging 14–16°C but high day-to-day variability from frontal passages. New runs expected daily could shift odds before resolution based on Istanbul Airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
13°C 30%
12°C 26%
14°C 23%
15°C 17%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 abr 2026
10°C or below
5%
11°C
11%
12°C
25%
13°C
30%
14°C
23%
15°C
17%
16°C
5%
17°C
6%
18°C
4%
19°C
4%
20°C or higher
2%
13°C 30%
12°C 26%
14°C 23%
15°C 17%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 abr 2026
10°C or below
$119 Vol.
5%
11°C
$43 Vol.
11%
12°C
$59 Vol.
25%
13°C
$112 Vol.
30%
14°C
$37 Vol.
23%
15°C
$187 Vol.
17%
16°C
$38 Vol.
5%
17°C
$48 Vol.
6%
18°C
$48 Vol.
4%
19°C
$110 Vol.
4%
20°C or higher
$349 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 12–14°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, reflecting ensemble forecast means from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service models clustering in this range amid a cool northerly airflow from the Black Sea. Recent 00Z and 12Z model runs over the past 24 hours show slight cooling trends due to persistent low-level clouds and 5–10 m/s winds aloft, capping daytime heating; 13°C leads as the median projection, with 12°C favored if overcast persists and 14°C possible under partial clearing. Early April climatology supports this, with historical highs averaging 14–16°C but high day-to-day variability from frontal passages. New runs expected daily could shift odds before resolution based on Istanbul Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Volumen
$1,148Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 12–14°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, reflecting ensemble forecast means from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service models clustering in this range amid a cool northerly airflow from the Black Sea. Recent 00Z and 12Z model runs over the past 24 hours show slight cooling trends due to persistent low-level clouds and 5–10 m/s winds aloft, capping daytime heating; 13°C leads as the median projection, with 12°C favored if overcast persists and 14°C possible under partial clearing. Early April climatology supports this, with historical highs averaging 14–16°C but high day-to-day variability from frontal passages. New runs expected daily could shift odds before resolution based on Istanbul Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,148Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 12–14°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, reflecting ensemble forecast means from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service models clustering in this range amid a cool northerly airflow from the Black Sea. Recent 00Z and 12Z model runs over the past 24 hours show slight cooling trends due to persistent low-level clouds and 5–10 m/s winds aloft, capping daytime heating; 13°C leads as the median projection, with 12°C favored if overcast persists and 14°C possible under partial clearing. Early April climatology supports this, with historical highs averaging 14–16°C but high day-to-day variability from frontal passages. New runs expected daily could shift odds before resolution based on Istanbul Airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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