Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, alongside IMGW guidance, project maximum temperatures near Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 6 clustering at 12-13°C, fueling trader sentiment with 12°C leading at 31% implied probability and 11°C at 21%, consistent with early April historical averages of 11-12°C. Current chilly conditions—highs of 6-9°C over the April 3-4 weekend amid recent showers—signal a warming trend from building high pressure, but high uncertainty persists due to model spreads of ±2°C, variable cloud cover, and potential cool fronts capping peaks below 12°C or allowing brief surges to 14°C via stronger insolation. Key variables include warm air advection strength, boundary layer mixing, and precipitation clearance; monitor 12Z model runs and April 5 observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
12°C 31%
11°C 21%
10°C 17.8%
13°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 abr 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
7%
10°C
11%
11°C
21%
12°C
31%
13°C
15%
14°C
12%
15°C
6%
16°C
6%
17°C or higher
4%
12°C 31%
11°C 21%
10°C 17.8%
13°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 abr 2026
7°C or below
$283 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$932 Vol.
1%
9°C
$251 Vol.
7%
10°C
$224 Vol.
11%
11°C
$133 Vol.
21%
12°C
$290 Vol.
31%
13°C
$186 Vol.
15%
14°C
$237 Vol.
12%
15°C
$166 Vol.
6%
16°C
$177 Vol.
6%
17°C or higher
$329 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, alongside IMGW guidance, project maximum temperatures near Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 6 clustering at 12-13°C, fueling trader sentiment with 12°C leading at 31% implied probability and 11°C at 21%, consistent with early April historical averages of 11-12°C. Current chilly conditions—highs of 6-9°C over the April 3-4 weekend amid recent showers—signal a warming trend from building high pressure, but high uncertainty persists due to model spreads of ±2°C, variable cloud cover, and potential cool fronts capping peaks below 12°C or allowing brief surges to 14°C via stronger insolation. Key variables include warm air advection strength, boundary layer mixing, and precipitation clearance; monitor 12Z model runs and April 5 observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volumen
$3,208Fecha de finalización
6 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, alongside IMGW guidance, project maximum temperatures near Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 6 clustering at 12-13°C, fueling trader sentiment with 12°C leading at 31% implied probability and 11°C at 21%, consistent with early April historical averages of 11-12°C. Current chilly conditions—highs of 6-9°C over the April 3-4 weekend amid recent showers—signal a warming trend from building high pressure, but high uncertainty persists due to model spreads of ±2°C, variable cloud cover, and potential cool fronts capping peaks below 12°C or allowing brief surges to 14°C via stronger insolation. Key variables include warm air advection strength, boundary layer mixing, and precipitation clearance; monitor 12Z model runs and April 5 observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,208Fecha de finalización
6 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, alongside IMGW guidance, project maximum temperatures near Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 6 clustering at 12-13°C, fueling trader sentiment with 12°C leading at 31% implied probability and 11°C at 21%, consistent with early April historical averages of 11-12°C. Current chilly conditions—highs of 6-9°C over the April 3-4 weekend amid recent showers—signal a warming trend from building high pressure, but high uncertainty persists due to model spreads of ±2°C, variable cloud cover, and potential cool fronts capping peaks below 12°C or allowing brief surges to 14°C via stronger insolation. Key variables include warm air advection strength, boundary layer mixing, and precipitation clearance; monitor 12Z model runs and April 5 observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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