Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in day-4 forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 8, with ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 12–14°C amid a cooling trend following warmer early-April conditions (e.g., 21°C observed on April 3 per recent AEMET data). Northerly airflow and increased cloud cover from a low-pressure system over Iberia suppress insolation and limit daytime heating at Madrid's 650m elevation, where continental spring variability amplifies small shifts in 500 hPa geopotential heights. Model spreads of ±2°C stem from differing depictions of boundary layer mixing and precipitation potential (20–50% odds), differentiating 12°C, 13°C, and 14°C+ outcomes. AEMET's next update and 12Z model runs tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution via official airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 8?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 8?
14°C or higher 50%
13°C 9%
12°C 6%
11°C 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 abr 2026
4°C or below
3%
5°C
3%
6°C
4%
7°C
4%
8°C
4%
9°C
4%
10°C
4%
11°C
5%
12°C
6%
13°C
9%
14°C or higher
50%
14°C or higher 50%
13°C 9%
12°C 6%
11°C 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 abr 2026
4°C or below
$106 Vol.
3%
5°C
$0 Vol.
3%
6°C
$0 Vol.
4%
7°C
$0 Vol.
4%
8°C
$0 Vol.
4%
9°C
$0 Vol.
4%
10°C
$0 Vol.
4%
11°C
$0 Vol.
5%
12°C
$0 Vol.
6%
13°C
$12 Vol.
9%
14°C or higher
$73 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in day-4 forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 8, with ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 12–14°C amid a cooling trend following warmer early-April conditions (e.g., 21°C observed on April 3 per recent AEMET data). Northerly airflow and increased cloud cover from a low-pressure system over Iberia suppress insolation and limit daytime heating at Madrid's 650m elevation, where continental spring variability amplifies small shifts in 500 hPa geopotential heights. Model spreads of ±2°C stem from differing depictions of boundary layer mixing and precipitation potential (20–50% odds), differentiating 12°C, 13°C, and 14°C+ outcomes. AEMET's next update and 12Z model runs tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$181Fecha de finalización
8 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in day-4 forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 8, with ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 12–14°C amid a cooling trend following warmer early-April conditions (e.g., 21°C observed on April 3 per recent AEMET data). Northerly airflow and increased cloud cover from a low-pressure system over Iberia suppress insolation and limit daytime heating at Madrid's 650m elevation, where continental spring variability amplifies small shifts in 500 hPa geopotential heights. Model spreads of ±2°C stem from differing depictions of boundary layer mixing and precipitation potential (20–50% odds), differentiating 12°C, 13°C, and 14°C+ outcomes. AEMET's next update and 12Z model runs tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$181Fecha de finalización
8 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in day-4 forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 8, with ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 12–14°C amid a cooling trend following warmer early-April conditions (e.g., 21°C observed on April 3 per recent AEMET data). Northerly airflow and increased cloud cover from a low-pressure system over Iberia suppress insolation and limit daytime heating at Madrid's 650m elevation, where continental spring variability amplifies small shifts in 500 hPa geopotential heights. Model spreads of ±2°C stem from differing depictions of boundary layer mixing and precipitation potential (20–50% odds), differentiating 12°C, 13°C, and 14°C+ outcomes. AEMET's next update and 12Z model runs tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution via official airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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