Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 4 at means of 18–19°C, with member spreads exceeding 5°C due to uncertainty in cloud cover dissipation after today's rainy, cooler conditions (high near 16°C) and potential southerly winds enhancing daytime heating. Trader consensus favors 21°C at 34% implied probability, closely trailed by 22°C (26%) and 20°C (17%), reflecting optimism for partial clearing and typical early-April diurnal swings in Shanghai's subtropical monsoon climate, where historical highs average 17–20°C. Key differentiators include frontal passage remnants and insolation levels; new 12Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates tonight could sharpen odds before observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
21°C 34%
22°C 25%
20°C 18%
23°C 12%
$51,826 Vol.
$51,826 Vol.
4 abr 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
5%
20°C
18%
21°C
34%
22°C
25%
23°C
12%
24°C or higher
6%
21°C 34%
22°C 25%
20°C 18%
23°C 12%
$51,826 Vol.
$51,826 Vol.
4 abr 2026
14°C or below
$10,110 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$8,068 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$8,172 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$3,851 Vol.
2%
18°C
$3,371 Vol.
2%
19°C
$3,855 Vol.
5%
20°C
$2,602 Vol.
18%
21°C
$2,891 Vol.
34%
22°C
$3,414 Vol.
25%
23°C
$2,560 Vol.
12%
24°C or higher
$2,992 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 4 at means of 18–19°C, with member spreads exceeding 5°C due to uncertainty in cloud cover dissipation after today's rainy, cooler conditions (high near 16°C) and potential southerly winds enhancing daytime heating. Trader consensus favors 21°C at 34% implied probability, closely trailed by 22°C (26%) and 20°C (17%), reflecting optimism for partial clearing and typical early-April diurnal swings in Shanghai's subtropical monsoon climate, where historical highs average 17–20°C. Key differentiators include frontal passage remnants and insolation levels; new 12Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates tonight could sharpen odds before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Volumen
$51,826Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 4 at means of 18–19°C, with member spreads exceeding 5°C due to uncertainty in cloud cover dissipation after today's rainy, cooler conditions (high near 16°C) and potential southerly winds enhancing daytime heating. Trader consensus favors 21°C at 34% implied probability, closely trailed by 22°C (26%) and 20°C (17%), reflecting optimism for partial clearing and typical early-April diurnal swings in Shanghai's subtropical monsoon climate, where historical highs average 17–20°C. Key differentiators include frontal passage remnants and insolation levels; new 12Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates tonight could sharpen odds before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$51,826Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 4 at means of 18–19°C, with member spreads exceeding 5°C due to uncertainty in cloud cover dissipation after today's rainy, cooler conditions (high near 16°C) and potential southerly winds enhancing daytime heating. Trader consensus favors 21°C at 34% implied probability, closely trailed by 22°C (26%) and 20°C (17%), reflecting optimism for partial clearing and typical early-April diurnal swings in Shanghai's subtropical monsoon climate, where historical highs average 17–20°C. Key differentiators include frontal passage remnants and insolation levels; new 12Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates tonight could sharpen odds before observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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