Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (44.5% implied probability) and 20°C (43.0%), reflecting forecast model clustering around 18-20°C amid inherent short-term uncertainty in diurnal heating for early April in Tokyo. Latest Japan Meteorological Agency MSM run projects 17.8°C, with GFS at 18.5°C and ECMWF at 18.2°C for nearby sites, but Tokyo's urban heat island effect often adds 1-2°C above rural models. Mostly sunny conditions and light southerly winds (17 km/h per AccuWeather) favor strong afternoon warming, though emerging clouds could cap peaks; historical early-April averages hover near 17°C. JMA hourly updates and station observations today will clarify the edge between these outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
20°C 51%
19°C 47%
21°C or higher 8.6%
16°C <1%
$113,200 Vol.
$113,200 Vol.
3 abr 2026
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
47%
20°C
51%
21°C or higher
9%
20°C 51%
19°C 47%
21°C or higher 8.6%
16°C <1%
$113,200 Vol.
$113,200 Vol.
3 abr 2026
16°C
$13,621 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$12,113 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$15,489 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$6,104 Vol.
47%
20°C
$5,901 Vol.
51%
21°C or higher
$7,270 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (44.5% implied probability) and 20°C (43.0%), reflecting forecast model clustering around 18-20°C amid inherent short-term uncertainty in diurnal heating for early April in Tokyo. Latest Japan Meteorological Agency MSM run projects 17.8°C, with GFS at 18.5°C and ECMWF at 18.2°C for nearby sites, but Tokyo's urban heat island effect often adds 1-2°C above rural models. Mostly sunny conditions and light southerly winds (17 km/h per AccuWeather) favor strong afternoon warming, though emerging clouds could cap peaks; historical early-April averages hover near 17°C. JMA hourly updates and station observations today will clarify the edge between these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$113,200Fecha de finalización
3 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (44.5% implied probability) and 20°C (43.0%), reflecting forecast model clustering around 18-20°C amid inherent short-term uncertainty in diurnal heating for early April in Tokyo. Latest Japan Meteorological Agency MSM run projects 17.8°C, with GFS at 18.5°C and ECMWF at 18.2°C for nearby sites, but Tokyo's urban heat island effect often adds 1-2°C above rural models. Mostly sunny conditions and light southerly winds (17 km/h per AccuWeather) favor strong afternoon warming, though emerging clouds could cap peaks; historical early-April averages hover near 17°C. JMA hourly updates and station observations today will clarify the edge between these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$113,200Fecha de finalización
3 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (44.5% implied probability) and 20°C (43.0%), reflecting forecast model clustering around 18-20°C amid inherent short-term uncertainty in diurnal heating for early April in Tokyo. Latest Japan Meteorological Agency MSM run projects 17.8°C, with GFS at 18.5°C and ECMWF at 18.2°C for nearby sites, but Tokyo's urban heat island effect often adds 1-2°C above rural models. Mostly sunny conditions and light southerly winds (17 km/h per AccuWeather) favor strong afternoon warming, though emerging clouds could cap peaks; historical early-April averages hover near 17°C. JMA hourly updates and station observations today will clarify the edge between these outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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