Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward a 26°C high in Shenzhen at 33% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime peaks near 26°C under partly cloudy conditions with scattered thunderstorms. This positioning stems from April 3 observations of highs around 29°C giving way to increased southerly moisture flow, enhancing convective activity and cloud cover that could suppress temperatures below climatological early-April averages of 25–26°C. High uncertainty across outcomes arises from variable factors like shower timing, sea breeze strength, and solar insolation levels; stronger mixing or prolonged sun could push toward 27–28°C, while heavier overcast favors 24–25°C. Updated CMA bulletins and model runs expected every 6–12 hours through April 3 may shift odds ahead of resolution using official Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport readings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
26°C 32%
27°C 19%
25°C 18%
24°C 17%
$11,018 Vol.
$11,018 Vol.
4 abr 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
17%
25°C
18%
26°C
32%
27°C
19%
28°C
12%
29°C or higher
3%
26°C 32%
27°C 19%
25°C 18%
24°C 17%
$11,018 Vol.
$11,018 Vol.
4 abr 2026
19°C or below
$1,747 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,239 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,161 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,309 Vol.
2%
23°C
$900 Vol.
3%
24°C
$499 Vol.
17%
25°C
$429 Vol.
18%
26°C
$680 Vol.
32%
27°C
$533 Vol.
19%
28°C
$1,032 Vol.
12%
29°C or higher
$1,487 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward a 26°C high in Shenzhen at 33% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime peaks near 26°C under partly cloudy conditions with scattered thunderstorms. This positioning stems from April 3 observations of highs around 29°C giving way to increased southerly moisture flow, enhancing convective activity and cloud cover that could suppress temperatures below climatological early-April averages of 25–26°C. High uncertainty across outcomes arises from variable factors like shower timing, sea breeze strength, and solar insolation levels; stronger mixing or prolonged sun could push toward 27–28°C, while heavier overcast favors 24–25°C. Updated CMA bulletins and model runs expected every 6–12 hours through April 3 may shift odds ahead of resolution using official Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volumen
$11,018Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward a 26°C high in Shenzhen at 33% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime peaks near 26°C under partly cloudy conditions with scattered thunderstorms. This positioning stems from April 3 observations of highs around 29°C giving way to increased southerly moisture flow, enhancing convective activity and cloud cover that could suppress temperatures below climatological early-April averages of 25–26°C. High uncertainty across outcomes arises from variable factors like shower timing, sea breeze strength, and solar insolation levels; stronger mixing or prolonged sun could push toward 27–28°C, while heavier overcast favors 24–25°C. Updated CMA bulletins and model runs expected every 6–12 hours through April 3 may shift odds ahead of resolution using official Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$11,018Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward a 26°C high in Shenzhen at 33% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime peaks near 26°C under partly cloudy conditions with scattered thunderstorms. This positioning stems from April 3 observations of highs around 29°C giving way to increased southerly moisture flow, enhancing convective activity and cloud cover that could suppress temperatures below climatological early-April averages of 25–26°C. High uncertainty across outcomes arises from variable factors like shower timing, sea breeze strength, and solar insolation levels; stronger mixing or prolonged sun could push toward 27–28°C, while heavier overcast favors 24–25°C. Updated CMA bulletins and model runs expected every 6–12 hours through April 3 may shift odds ahead of resolution using official Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport readings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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