Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for London's highest temperature on April 4, with Met Office guidance pointing to a 15°C maximum under persistent overcast skies and gusts up to 40 mph from a southwesterly flow, limiting solar heating and mixing cooler Atlantic air. BBC forecasts edge higher at 16°C amid potential sunny intervals, while ensemble models show a narrow spread around 15-17°C, differentiating outcomes via cloud cover variability and afternoon boundary layer development. Strong winds and 40% evening rain risk cap upside, aligning with early April climatology (average 13°C). Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs expected midday April 3 could sharpen probabilities as observations refine short-range guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in London on April 4?
Highest temperature in London on April 4?
15°C 39%
16°C 34%
17°C or higher 22%
14°C 10%
$44,929 Vol.
$44,929 Vol.
4 abr 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
10%
15°C
39%
16°C
34%
17°C or higher
22%
15°C 39%
16°C 34%
17°C or higher 22%
14°C 10%
$44,929 Vol.
$44,929 Vol.
4 abr 2026
7°C or below
$7,085 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$3,847 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$2,428 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$3,150 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$5,464 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$3,351 Vol.
1%
13°C
$3,790 Vol.
2%
14°C
$4,185 Vol.
10%
15°C
$3,993 Vol.
39%
16°C
$3,494 Vol.
34%
17°C or higher
$4,220 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for London's highest temperature on April 4, with Met Office guidance pointing to a 15°C maximum under persistent overcast skies and gusts up to 40 mph from a southwesterly flow, limiting solar heating and mixing cooler Atlantic air. BBC forecasts edge higher at 16°C amid potential sunny intervals, while ensemble models show a narrow spread around 15-17°C, differentiating outcomes via cloud cover variability and afternoon boundary layer development. Strong winds and 40% evening rain risk cap upside, aligning with early April climatology (average 13°C). Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs expected midday April 3 could sharpen probabilities as observations refine short-range guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volumen
$44,929Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for London's highest temperature on April 4, with Met Office guidance pointing to a 15°C maximum under persistent overcast skies and gusts up to 40 mph from a southwesterly flow, limiting solar heating and mixing cooler Atlantic air. BBC forecasts edge higher at 16°C amid potential sunny intervals, while ensemble models show a narrow spread around 15-17°C, differentiating outcomes via cloud cover variability and afternoon boundary layer development. Strong winds and 40% evening rain risk cap upside, aligning with early April climatology (average 13°C). Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs expected midday April 3 could sharpen probabilities as observations refine short-range guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$44,929Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for London's highest temperature on April 4, with Met Office guidance pointing to a 15°C maximum under persistent overcast skies and gusts up to 40 mph from a southwesterly flow, limiting solar heating and mixing cooler Atlantic air. BBC forecasts edge higher at 16°C amid potential sunny intervals, while ensemble models show a narrow spread around 15-17°C, differentiating outcomes via cloud cover variability and afternoon boundary layer development. Strong winds and 40% evening rain risk cap upside, aligning with early April climatology (average 13°C). Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs expected midday April 3 could sharpen probabilities as observations refine short-range guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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