Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models currently project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 6 around 15-17°C, aligning with trader consensus where these outcomes command 81% implied probability, reflecting early spring climatology with average highs of 14-16°C per Turkish State Meteorological Service historical data. Tight odds differentiate via model spread: ECMWF leans slightly warmer with potential southerly flow enhancing Marmara Sea warmth advection, while GFS shows cooler bias from persistent cloud cover or weak frontal timing. Inherent 4-day forecast uncertainty—driven by upper-level trough positioning and low-level moisture—keeps 13-18°C viable; daily MGM updates and 12-hourly model runs through April 5 will sharpen resolution criteria based on airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 6 de abril?
¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 6 de abril?
15°C 32%
17°C 28%
14°C 18%
16°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 abr 2026
11°C o menos
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
13%
14°C
18%
15°C
32%
16°C
23%
17°C
28%
18°C
13%
19°C
7%
20°C
2%
21°C o más
5%
15°C 32%
17°C 28%
14°C 18%
16°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 abr 2026
11°C o menos
$456 Vol.
1%
12°C
$306 Vol.
1%
13°C
$57 Vol.
13%
14°C
$69 Vol.
18%
15°C
$106 Vol.
32%
16°C
$75 Vol.
23%
17°C
$91 Vol.
28%
18°C
$37 Vol.
13%
19°C
$37 Vol.
7%
20°C
$55 Vol.
2%
21°C o más
$71 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models currently project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 6 around 15-17°C, aligning with trader consensus where these outcomes command 81% implied probability, reflecting early spring climatology with average highs of 14-16°C per Turkish State Meteorological Service historical data. Tight odds differentiate via model spread: ECMWF leans slightly warmer with potential southerly flow enhancing Marmara Sea warmth advection, while GFS shows cooler bias from persistent cloud cover or weak frontal timing. Inherent 4-day forecast uncertainty—driven by upper-level trough positioning and low-level moisture—keeps 13-18°C viable; daily MGM updates and 12-hourly model runs through April 5 will sharpen resolution criteria based on airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volumen
$1,359Fecha de finalización
6 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models currently project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 6 around 15-17°C, aligning with trader consensus where these outcomes command 81% implied probability, reflecting early spring climatology with average highs of 14-16°C per Turkish State Meteorological Service historical data. Tight odds differentiate via model spread: ECMWF leans slightly warmer with potential southerly flow enhancing Marmara Sea warmth advection, while GFS shows cooler bias from persistent cloud cover or weak frontal timing. Inherent 4-day forecast uncertainty—driven by upper-level trough positioning and low-level moisture—keeps 13-18°C viable; daily MGM updates and 12-hourly model runs through April 5 will sharpen resolution criteria based on airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,359Fecha de finalización
6 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models currently project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 6 around 15-17°C, aligning with trader consensus where these outcomes command 81% implied probability, reflecting early spring climatology with average highs of 14-16°C per Turkish State Meteorological Service historical data. Tight odds differentiate via model spread: ECMWF leans slightly warmer with potential southerly flow enhancing Marmara Sea warmth advection, while GFS shows cooler bias from persistent cloud cover or weak frontal timing. Inherent 4-day forecast uncertainty—driven by upper-level trough positioning and low-level moisture—keeps 13-18°C viable; daily MGM updates and 12-hourly model runs through April 5 will sharpen resolution criteria based on airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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