Divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models underpin the even 50% market-implied odds for Milan's highest temperature on April 7 falling at or below 17°C versus 27°C or higher, reflecting trader consensus on substantial uncertainty four days out. Recent runs show ensemble spreads of 10°C or more near Milan, driven by variable 500 hPa geopotential height patterns—northerly troughs promoting cooler advection and cloud cover in some members (favoring ≤17°C), versus ridging and southerly winds enabling clear skies and peaks ≥27°C in others. Official Italian sources like 3B Meteo project around 24°C with sunshine, aligning with April climatological averages of 18°C at Milan Malpensa Airport (market resolution station), but NAO-influenced variability amplifies risks. New ECMWF/GFS updates twice daily through April 6 will sharpen guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on April 7?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 7?
27°C or higher 22%
22°C 21%
25°C 21%
23°C 21%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 abr 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
3%
19°C
5%
20°C
6%
21°C
15%
22°C
21%
23°C
21%
24°C
21%
25°C
21%
26°C
21%
27°C or higher
22%
27°C or higher 22%
22°C 21%
25°C 21%
23°C 21%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 abr 2026
17°C or below
$156 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$296 Vol.
3%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
6%
21°C
$31 Vol.
15%
22°C
$0 Vol.
21%
23°C
$0 Vol.
21%
24°C
$0 Vol.
21%
25°C
$0 Vol.
21%
26°C
$0 Vol.
21%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models underpin the even 50% market-implied odds for Milan's highest temperature on April 7 falling at or below 17°C versus 27°C or higher, reflecting trader consensus on substantial uncertainty four days out. Recent runs show ensemble spreads of 10°C or more near Milan, driven by variable 500 hPa geopotential height patterns—northerly troughs promoting cooler advection and cloud cover in some members (favoring ≤17°C), versus ridging and southerly winds enabling clear skies and peaks ≥27°C in others. Official Italian sources like 3B Meteo project around 24°C with sunshine, aligning with April climatological averages of 18°C at Milan Malpensa Airport (market resolution station), but NAO-influenced variability amplifies risks. New ECMWF/GFS updates twice daily through April 6 will sharpen guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volumen
$483Fecha de finalización
7 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:32 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models underpin the even 50% market-implied odds for Milan's highest temperature on April 7 falling at or below 17°C versus 27°C or higher, reflecting trader consensus on substantial uncertainty four days out. Recent runs show ensemble spreads of 10°C or more near Milan, driven by variable 500 hPa geopotential height patterns—northerly troughs promoting cooler advection and cloud cover in some members (favoring ≤17°C), versus ridging and southerly winds enabling clear skies and peaks ≥27°C in others. Official Italian sources like 3B Meteo project around 24°C with sunshine, aligning with April climatological averages of 18°C at Milan Malpensa Airport (market resolution station), but NAO-influenced variability amplifies risks. New ECMWF/GFS updates twice daily through April 6 will sharpen guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$483Fecha de finalización
7 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:32 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models underpin the even 50% market-implied odds for Milan's highest temperature on April 7 falling at or below 17°C versus 27°C or higher, reflecting trader consensus on substantial uncertainty four days out. Recent runs show ensemble spreads of 10°C or more near Milan, driven by variable 500 hPa geopotential height patterns—northerly troughs promoting cooler advection and cloud cover in some members (favoring ≤17°C), versus ridging and southerly winds enabling clear skies and peaks ≥27°C in others. Official Italian sources like 3B Meteo project around 24°C with sunshine, aligning with April climatological averages of 18°C at Milan Malpensa Airport (market resolution station), but NAO-influenced variability amplifies risks. New ECMWF/GFS updates twice daily through April 6 will sharpen guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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