Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Chongqing on May 11, driven by official hourly observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Chongqing station, which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. Current atmospheric conditions—high humidity around 80%, light southerly winds, and overcast skies—align with forecast model consensus from CMA and international agencies like the UK Met Office, preventing further intensification despite May's typical warming trend toward 25–30°C averages. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon clearing of clouds before sunset, potentially adding 1–2°C via enhanced insolation, though declining solar angle and incoming moist air make this unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected within hours will confirm resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chongqing on May 11?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 11?
29°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$65,272 Vol.
$65,272 Vol.
11 may 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$65,272 Vol.
$65,272 Vol.
11 may 2026
24°C or below
$4,728 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,552 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,040 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,970 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,002 Vol.
No
29°C
$12,195 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$6,434 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,992 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,811 Vol.
No
33°C
$6,115 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$2,433 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Chongqing on May 11, driven by official hourly observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Chongqing station, which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. Current atmospheric conditions—high humidity around 80%, light southerly winds, and overcast skies—align with forecast model consensus from CMA and international agencies like the UK Met Office, preventing further intensification despite May's typical warming trend toward 25–30°C averages. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon clearing of clouds before sunset, potentially adding 1–2°C via enhanced insolation, though declining solar angle and incoming moist air make this unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected within hours will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 9, 2026, 4:52 AM ET
Volumen
$65,272Fecha de finalización
11 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 9, 2026, 4:52 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Chongqing on May 11, driven by official hourly observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Chongqing station, which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. Current atmospheric conditions—high humidity around 80%, light southerly winds, and overcast skies—align with forecast model consensus from CMA and international agencies like the UK Met Office, preventing further intensification despite May's typical warming trend toward 25–30°C averages. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon clearing of clouds before sunset, potentially adding 1–2°C via enhanced insolation, though declining solar angle and incoming moist air make this unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected within hours will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$65,272Fecha de finalización
11 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 9, 2026, 4:52 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Chongqing on May 11, driven by official hourly observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Chongqing station, which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. Current atmospheric conditions—high humidity around 80%, light southerly winds, and overcast skies—align with forecast model consensus from CMA and international agencies like the UK Met Office, preventing further intensification despite May's typical warming trend toward 25–30°C averages. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon clearing of clouds before sunset, potentially adding 1–2°C via enhanced insolation, though declining solar angle and incoming moist air make this unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected within hours will confirm resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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