**Forecast models and official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum near 31–32°C on June 20, 2026, under a southerly airstream with high humidity and scattered showers.** Seasonal outlooks issued in late May already flagged above-normal temperatures for June–August amid ongoing climate warming trends, yet near-term conditions feature typical early-summer variability that keeps daily maxima from reaching the upper end of the long-term average. Persistent moisture (often 75–95% relative humidity) combined with cloud cover and convective showers limits solar heating, while localized clearing could allow brief spikes. Multi-model consensus and historical analogs under similar patterns produce a tight distribution centered on 30–33°C, with 31°C and 32°C emerging as the leading outcomes because even small shifts in rainfall timing or wind strength can alter the peak by 1–2°C. Traders price the close spread between these two bins to reflect that genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single deterministic value.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 20?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 20?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$226,266 Vol.
$226,266 Vol.
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$226,266 Vol.
$226,266 Vol.
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jun 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
**Forecast models and official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a maximum near 31–32°C on June 20, 2026, under a southerly airstream with high humidity and scattered showers.** Seasonal outlooks issued in late May already flagged above-normal temperatures for June–August amid ongoing climate warming trends, yet near-term conditions feature typical early-summer variability that keeps daily maxima from reaching the upper end of the long-term average. Persistent moisture (often 75–95% relative humidity) combined with cloud cover and convective showers limits solar heating, while localized clearing could allow brief spikes. Multi-model consensus and historical analogs under similar patterns produce a tight distribution centered on 30–33°C, with 31°C and 32°C emerging as the leading outcomes because even small shifts in rainfall timing or wind strength can alter the peak by 1–2°C. Traders price the close spread between these two bins to reflect that genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single deterministic value.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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