The closely matched market-implied odds for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on September 18 stem primarily from ensemble forecast spread in numerical weather models, with the subtropical ridge expected to deliver typical late-summer warmth but variable cloud cover and moisture potentially capping or boosting daytime heating. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models shows consensus around seasonal norms of 31–32°C, tempered by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and any overnight rain that could alter surface temperatures. Historical September maxima average near 31°C, and traders appear to weigh these baselines against short-term model runs that diverge on wind patterns and humidity levels ahead of the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 18 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Hong Kong el 18 de septiembre?
31°C 37%
32°C 37%
30°C 14%
33°C 12%
NUEVO
$15,715 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,715 Vol.
18 sep 2026
25°C o menos
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
14%
31°C
37%
32°C
37%
33°C
12%
34°C
2%
35°C o superior
<1%
31°C 37%
32°C 37%
30°C 14%
33°C 12%
NUEVO
$15,715 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,715 Vol.
18 sep 2026
25°C o menos
$1,885 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,550 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,450 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$579 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$814 Vol.
3%
30°C
$778 Vol.
14%
31°C
$2,148 Vol.
37%
32°C
$3,205 Vol.
37%
33°C
$1,212 Vol.
12%
34°C
$725 Vol.
2%
35°C o superior
$1,369 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched market-implied odds for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on September 18 stem primarily from ensemble forecast spread in numerical weather models, with the subtropical ridge expected to deliver typical late-summer warmth but variable cloud cover and moisture potentially capping or boosting daytime heating. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models shows consensus around seasonal norms of 31–32°C, tempered by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and any overnight rain that could alter surface temperatures. Historical September maxima average near 31°C, and traders appear to weigh these baselines against short-term model runs that diverge on wind patterns and humidity levels ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$15,715Fecha de finalización
18 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched market-implied odds for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on September 18 stem primarily from ensemble forecast spread in numerical weather models, with the subtropical ridge expected to deliver typical late-summer warmth but variable cloud cover and moisture potentially capping or boosting daytime heating. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models shows consensus around seasonal norms of 31–32°C, tempered by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and any overnight rain that could alter surface temperatures. Historical September maxima average near 31°C, and traders appear to weigh these baselines against short-term model runs that diverge on wind patterns and humidity levels ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$15,715Fecha de finalización
18 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on September 18 stem primarily from ensemble forecast spread in numerical weather models, with the subtropical ridge expected to deliver typical late-summer warmth but variable cloud cover and moisture potentially capping or boosting daytime heating. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models shows consensus around seasonal norms of 31–32°C, tempered by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and any overnight rain that could alter surface temperatures. Historical September maxima average near 31°C, and traders appear to weigh these baselines against short-term model runs that diverge on wind patterns and humidity levels ahead of the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes