Persistent southwest monsoon flow and widespread thunderstorm activity are suppressing maximum temperatures in Manila ahead of September 4, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models converging on highs of 29–31 °C under mostly cloudy, humid conditions and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when daily maxima average near 30–31 °C amid peak rainy-season cloud cover and frequent precipitation that limits diurnal heating. Current model consensus shows limited upside risk for 32 °C or higher, while cooler outcomes below 29 °C would require stronger-than-expected rain-cooled air or atypical wind shifts. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 30 °C and 31 °C, reflecting the narrow expected range shaped by ongoing monsoon dynamics and short-range forecast stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 4 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 4 de septiembre?
31°C 40%
30°C 34%
29°C 16%
32°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
23°C o menos
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
16%
30°C
34%
31°C
40%
32°C
7%
33°C o más
2%
31°C 40%
30°C 34%
29°C 16%
32°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
23°C o menos
$107 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$297 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$358 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$173 Vol.
2%
27°C
$226 Vol.
2%
28°C
$25 Vol.
4%
29°C
$499 Vol.
16%
30°C
$73 Vol.
34%
31°C
$888 Vol.
40%
32°C
$201 Vol.
7%
33°C o más
$77 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow and widespread thunderstorm activity are suppressing maximum temperatures in Manila ahead of September 4, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models converging on highs of 29–31 °C under mostly cloudy, humid conditions and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when daily maxima average near 30–31 °C amid peak rainy-season cloud cover and frequent precipitation that limits diurnal heating. Current model consensus shows limited upside risk for 32 °C or higher, while cooler outcomes below 29 °C would require stronger-than-expected rain-cooled air or atypical wind shifts. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 30 °C and 31 °C, reflecting the narrow expected range shaped by ongoing monsoon dynamics and short-range forecast stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volumen
$2,923Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow and widespread thunderstorm activity are suppressing maximum temperatures in Manila ahead of September 4, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models converging on highs of 29–31 °C under mostly cloudy, humid conditions and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when daily maxima average near 30–31 °C amid peak rainy-season cloud cover and frequent precipitation that limits diurnal heating. Current model consensus shows limited upside risk for 32 °C or higher, while cooler outcomes below 29 °C would require stronger-than-expected rain-cooled air or atypical wind shifts. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 30 °C and 31 °C, reflecting the narrow expected range shaped by ongoing monsoon dynamics and short-range forecast stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,923Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon flow and widespread thunderstorm activity are suppressing maximum temperatures in Manila ahead of September 4, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models converging on highs of 29–31 °C under mostly cloudy, humid conditions and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when daily maxima average near 30–31 °C amid peak rainy-season cloud cover and frequent precipitation that limits diurnal heating. Current model consensus shows limited upside risk for 32 °C or higher, while cooler outcomes below 29 °C would require stronger-than-expected rain-cooled air or atypical wind shifts. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 30 °C and 31 °C, reflecting the narrow expected range shaped by ongoing monsoon dynamics and short-range forecast stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes