Short-range numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate a peak temperature near 35–37°C in Milan on August 1, 2026, under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime heating. This setup favors the market’s leading outcomes at 36°C (32.5%) and 37°C (24%), with modest spread arising from small differences in modeled boundary-layer mixing, urban heat-island effects, and exact timing of any weak moisture return. Historical August maxima average 28–30°C, so the current anomaly reflects amplified ridging rather than typical climatology. Updated model runs and official Italian Meteorological Service guidance over the next 48 hours will refine the precise maximum before resolution.