A persistent subtropical high-pressure system, often called the African anticyclone, continues to dominate the Mediterranean, advecting hot Saharan air northward and suppressing cloud cover across northern Italy. This setup supports surface temperatures well above Milan’s late-summer climatological average of roughly 28–30 °C, with official guidance and ensemble models indicating daytime maxima near 35–38 °C on 4 August. Key differentiating factors include the precise strength and position of the 850 hPa ridge, potential for localized subsidence warming, and the urban heat-island amplification within the Po Valley. Model consensus shows modest spread around these values, keeping trader-implied odds closely balanced between 34 °C or below and the 35–36 °C bins while assigning low probability to extremes above 38 °C absent further ridge intensification. Updated National Meteorological Service runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine the final maximum.